ESPN calls Gunnar Henderson Orioles' biggest disappointment of 2026, and they're right

Gunnar Henderson set himself an extremely high bar in his first two seasons in the league. After a 34-game stint in 2022, he burst onto the scene in 2023. Henderson posted an .814 OPS and 6.1 bWAR, won the American League Rookie of the Year, earned the Louisville Slugger Silver Slugger award at shortstop, and finished eighth in the MVP voting. He followed that up in 2024 with 37 home runs, an .893 OPS, 8.8 bWAR, his first All-Star selection, and fourth place in the MVP voting.

At just 23 years old, Henderson had racked up almost 200 RBI, nearly 70 home runs, and 15.8 bWAR. His 13.4 fWAR was the sixth-highest for a shortstop before their age-24 season in the expansion era. Henderson looked like the next great shortstop in baseball.

Then, in 2025, he took a slight step backwards. While 8.8 bWAR is hard to replicate season-to-season, he posted a then-career-low 5.4. His home run total also dropped from 20 to 17. He still had a respectable .787 OPS, though, so most thought it was more of a speed bump.

Henderson's 2026 falloff has hindered the Orioles' playoff chances

If 2025 was a speed bump, then 2026 has been a pothole. With less than two weeks to go in the season, Henderson's bWAR has halved to 2.7. He has a .703 OPS, and while his home run total is back up to 23, his doubles have fallen to a career low of 26. He also isn't hitting for average as he has in the past, with a .221 batting average. His OPS+ has gone from 155 in 2024 to 99 in 2026.

Henderson's struggles earned him the title of the O's biggest disappointment, according to ESPN's Bradford Doolittle, and it's hard to disagree. Most believed that Henderson would step back up to his elite level in 2026, and instead he's faltered even more.

Henderson's falloff has gone in line with the Orioles' decline. The O's made the playoffs in '23 and '24 with Henderson raking. In 2025, Henderson took a step back, and the O's only won 75 games and missed the playoffs. In '26, the 25-year-old has taken another step back, and the O's are on the outside looking in on the playoffs again, only helped towards contention by an extremely weak American League.

While Henderson isn't fully to blame for Baltimore's decline, baseball is a team sport; it's hard not to think that if Henderson were performing closer to his MVP level, the O's would be in contention. If Baltimore has hopes of making it back to the postseason in 2027, they are going to need Henderson to find his form.

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