2 reasons the Orioles should trade Gunnar Henderson this offseason, and 1 reason they shouldn't

The Baltimore Orioles are facing a predicament this offseason with Gunnar Henderson. The former All-Star and top-five MVP finisher has two years left of team control until he reaches free agency.

The Orioles reportedly tried to work out an extension with their franchise shortstop during spring training last year, but with Henderson being one of the best young shortstops in baseball and a Scott Boras client, it was never likely that the two sides would reach an agreement. Now, Baltimore needs to decide whether they will play out the string with Henderson or trade him and get a return.

Two reasons to trade Gunnar Henderson

They already pushed back the timeline

The first reason is that Mike Elias already decided the current core wasn't going to win a ring anytime soon, considering the trade of Adley Rutschman at the deadline. Rutschman had one year remaining until he was a free agent, but Elias decided to maximize his value by getting rid of him now. Doing so pushed back the timeline because their roster became younger and more developmental.

Henderson no longer fits the timeline unless Elias is planning to push all the chips in this offseason to make a championship-level roster, which he has never done. It's unlikely that the roster around Henderson (and Alonso) is ready to be World Series contenders in the next two seasons; that usually takes some building up to. They should move Henderson now and really push the timeline back to fit the younger players on the roster.

Gunnar Henderson's value will only go down from here

The second reason is that Henderson's value is only going to go down from this offseason forward, especially with his struggles this season. Trading away a player of his caliber with two full seasons of control can top what they got for Rutschman, and help to create a pipeline of prospects Baltimore can either develop or trade. Teams like the Dodgers, Mets, Blue Jays, or Yankees would likely sell their entire farm system to acquire Henderson and get two years to try to negotiate a contract extension.

One Reason not to trade Gunnar Henderson

MLB CBA uncertainty

The biggest reason not to trade Henderson this offseason is the potential implementation of the salary cap. Even though most don't expect it to happen, the projected parameters of it would greatly increase Baltimore's ability to re-sign their shortstop. The Orioles have never been a team to shell out the kind of money required to sign a player like Henderson to the long-term extension. A salary cap will lower his next contract significantly, potentially to a point where the O's can actually negotiate a deal with him. That reason alone might be enough to keep Henderson through this offseason, at least.

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