The Orioles-Gunnar Henderson trade buzz is ignoring the all-around difficult reality

A few seasons ago, Gunnar Henderson looked like a player headed towards elite status. He won Rookie of the Year in 2022 and finished eighth in the MVP voting. The following season, he finished fourth in MVP voting, putting up an 8 win season. In 2024, his OPS was almost 900. The arrow was definitely pointing up.

Then, 2025 came. Gunnar missed most of spring training due to an oblique injury and missed the first week of the season. He struggled in April, likely due to the lack of at bats and timing from the missed spring training time. His slash line in April was 228/268/413. However, starting on May 1, his slash line was 282/363/443. That was a drop-off from years past but it was an obvious improvement over April. After the season, we found out that he was playing through a should injury that likely hurt his power. Despite the decline, Gunnar's "off year" was still one where he was a 5.4 WAR player.

The hope was that he would regain his power in 2026 with the thought that the shoulder would be healed up. As we all know, 2026 has turned into a disastrous season for him. His current line is 214/297/390. He regularly looks frustrated, and some of that frustration may be carrying onto the field as his defense has suffered. Not that long ago, Henderson was looking at an OAA of +3 and on track for a promising season at shortstop. He now has 0 OAA.

The other alarming aspect about 2026 is the drop he has seen in his Statcast numbers. His bat speed, which is still very good, has dropped the last two seasons. It's down 1 MPH since last year and is down about 2 MPH since 2024. His exit velo and hard hit% are way down. A few years ago, his Statcast page was red all over. Now its a lot of blue. Also, after years of being very good in clutch situations, Henderson has been terrible in that department this year. Every time he's up when the O's need a big hit, he seemingly fails. He swings at bad pitches, gets himself into pitcher's counts, and then chases. That has been a common theme all year.

The question has been asked: did Gunnar Henderson already peak? We've seen it before. It's not terribly unusual for a player to peak before turning 25. Nick Markakis is an example of that for Orioles fans. Also, its not easy to put up 8-WAR seasons, so it's possible that will be his best year ever ... but does that mean he can't be a highly productive player again? It seems like a lot of Orioles fans have their doubts he can, or at least if he can do it in Baltimore ever again.

Personally, I think the talk is premature. Players, even great ones, have bad seasons all the time. There are a lot outside factors that could go into these types of things. Henderson got married this offseason, has that been a distraction? Is the shoulder 100%? Does he have another injury? For me, the injury excuse doesn't work as much because his approach at the plate has been so bad. He has increased his launch angle this year, almost as if his whole approach is to hit a homer. He is so talented and so strong that homers are going to happen naturally for him, but if he tries to do it he starts to ignore everything else that made him such a great and feared hitter. That doesn't mean an injury couldn't be hindering him in other areas at the plate or in the field, but I believe an injury can't be blamed on his biggest issues in 2026.

The talk around Orioles social media and also the national media, especially in the wake of the Adley Rutschman trade, is if Henderson will be the next one out the door. As we all know, Henderson is represented by Scott Boras and his clients rarely sign contract extensions (especially young players looking at their first huge payday). We also know that the Orioles have approached Henderson about an extension on multiple occasions. We obviously have no idea what was offered and we don't know what his reponse was. All we know is a deal did not get done, and that is to be expected with Boras as his agent.

In light of that, trading Henderson makes sense. Much like the Rutschman trade, if the player doesn't want to be there, you move on from him. Yes, you could just keep him and try to win with him and let him go for a draft pick, and I think if the Orioles are in position to win they may do that. That being said, I would be shocked if Henderson is an Oriole in 2028.

The new CBA is hanging over the 2027 season. We do not know if a season will be played. The owners are clinging to this salary cap nonsense and the players aren't going to do it, which they are correct about. However, what I do wonder is if there is any chance some sort of clause is put into the new CBA that makes it easier for teams to keep their homegrown players.

The NBA has this. The team that has the current rights to the player can offer that player more than anyone else. The NBA does have a cap, and that makes it easier to do something like this. How this would be structured within the MLB CBA, with no cap, I am not sure. One of the things that the owners say is an issue is that all the best players go to the bigger dollar teams and the fans are tired of that. If the players can do something where the salaries aren't suppressed but it gives the "little guys" a better chance at keeping their own players, maybe that can be worked out.

Some Orioles fans wouldn't care about this though. Some just want Henderson gone. They feel he doesn't want to be here, that his body language isn't good and that his overall attitude isn't where it should be. While I don't disagree that some of that is possible, I largely think is just fans being fans and overrating things they don't know anything about.

I see a player who is just frustrated that things aren't going his way and that he isn't helping the team. The Orioles' biggest probems are defense, back end of the bullpen, and Gunnar Henderson. Whatever order you want to put those three things in, those are the obvious elephants in the room. Most fans saw the back end of the 'pen and defensive issues coming, but no one expected this from Henderson, especially after how good he looked during the WBC.

Should Gunnar be traded? I think that is a complicated question to ask. First of all, I think it would be incredibly dumb to trade him this offseason (and I say that as if we are viewing this through the lens of a normal offseason, which it likely won't be). He is having a bad year and that will affect his value. Trading Henderson at his lowest value makes no sense. You still have him under team control for two more years, so you have time over the next 12-18 months to trade him. Yes, if you wait, teams will have him for less time, but a big improvement in his game should offset that, at least value-wise.

He is your best asset and you can't trade a top asset for 60-70 cents on the dollar just because you don't like his body language. Now, if some team wants to value him as an upper echelon player, sure, hear them out. I am just not sure that is likely. Of course, I did not think that would be likely with Rutschman either, but he's having a fantastic defensive season and his offensive numbers should be better. His Statcast page is the best we have seen in years. Health has certainly hurt him, but obviously the value was there. That being said, I would need more for Henderson than we got for Rutschman, and it's hard for me to believe that deal will be there this offseason. Could it be there at the trade deadline in 2027? Or the offseason next year? Absolutely.

The other possibility is that Henderson changes his mind and is open to an extension. Is that something fans would want? When Bobby Witt signed his contract with the Royals back in 2024, he set a template for what a contract could look like for Henderson. At the time, the Royals were guaranteeing themselves seven years of Witt, and after that they gave him a chance to opt out of the deal every year for four years. It was as big a case of giving the player all the power as you will ever see in a contract. That was the type of deal I thought the Orioles should have offered Henderson at the time. You would have had to have added 5-10% on top of it, but the structure was there. One thing Scott Boras has said is that if he had a client sign a deal like that, the player would need to hold all the power. They would need a no-trade clause, opt outs, and top dollar salary. Did the Orioles ever offer that type of deal? Would they even want to?

I differ from most fans on this. I am usually someone that wants to trade players, but I would rather extend Henderson and would still give him $300-$500 million. I don't think he is done as an elite player, although I do think he should be moved off of shortstop and put at third base. I think he would be an elite third baseman instead of being an average shortstop. Elite talents are not easy to come by, and he is still just 25 years old. I would rather keep that player than see him go. Even if we only had him guaranteed to be here through his age-30 season, that would be sufficient. He can have the opt outs and if he leaves at that point, so be it. But he's due to make $30-$40M the next two seasons, depending on his performance. After that, if you offer him $40 million a year for 8-10 years and the ability to opt out every year after 2031 with a no-trade clause, does he turn that down?

This is a bigger decision for Mike Elias than the Rutschman trade. Rutschman may have been the face of the rebuild, but Henderson is the best pure talent this team has had since Manny Machado and one of the most talented homegrown players this organization has ever had. Whether they trade him or extend him, this decision has huge long term ramifications. You have to get this one right, which is why I am very against trading him at his lowest value.

For now, we wait and see how he ends the year. We then wait and see how things with the new CBA go and if it hurts or helps the Orioles in their quest to keep Gunnar. For now, I will continue to assume that he is eventually traded and that we are seeing the last days of Henderson in an Orioles uniform. I will; however, continue to hope that something gets worked out and we get to enjoy Henderson as Oriole for at least another 4-5 seasons.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow