Gunnar Henderson's extended slump is distracting from one extremely positive development in his game

This season, Gunnar Henderson has fallen woefully short of the lofty standard he had set for himself over the first three years of his career. From 2023 through 2025, in his age 22 through 24 seasons, Henderson slashed .271/.347/.487, which was good for a 133 wRC+. He averaged almost six WAR per season during that stretch, making him one of the most valuable players in all of baseball over that span. Keep in mind that those stats include a brutal two-month stretch at the start of his rookie year, where he was hitting below the Mendoza line, and a 2025 season that was impacted by a shoulder injury that sapped his power. With those things in mind, it was easy to look at what Henderson had done over his first three seasons and project an MVP-caliber 2026 season and a Hall of Fame-worthy career going forward.

Projections are one thing, and reality is another, and the reality of Henderson's 2026 season is that it's been terribly disappointing. Offensively, he's putting up career-worst numbers across the board, and he's been almost unrecognizable. He's still hitting home runs, but at the total expense of his ability to reliably make contact and walk. His OBP is .293 that's nearly a 100 point drop from his career year in 2024. However, despite his collapse on the offensive side, Henderson has still managed to be a net positive for the Orioles. With how bad his season has felt, it may surprise Orioles fans to hear that he's currently second on the team in fWAR behind Adley Rutschman, thanks almost entirely to a massive leap on the defensive side of the ball.

Gunnar Henderson's season has not been as bad as it's felt

In the past, the selling point behind Gunnar Henderson as a superstar was that he was a great offensive player who could play a "good enough" shortstop to stick at the position. A great offensive player who plays average defense at shortstop is incredibly valuable, and that's why so many people believed that the Orioles would never be able to keep Henderson, simply because a player with his profile was worth so much that only the biggest markets could afford to pay him. Obviously, Henderson has not been that guy this year.

The reason that kind of player is so valuable is that they are so rare. Shortstop defense is so important and so difficult that finding someone who can even be average at it while putting up good offensive numbers is uncommon. The majority of teams have to settle for shortstops that play good to great defense but are below league-average hitters. Obviously, you'd rather have an offensive superstar than one of those kinds of shortstops, but shortstop defense is so important that those kinds of shortstops can still be very valuable players to their team. That's the kind of player Henderson has been this year, a defense-first shortstop with a slightly below-average bat.

For the first time in his career, Henderson is playing great defense at shortstop. He's had some loud errors like the one against the Blue Jays that ended up on repeat when it led to a five-run inning and loss, but overall on the season, Henderson has been super reliable on defense.

Looking at the numbers, the big improvement has been on balls hit up the middle. In 2025, Henderson put up -4 OAA on balls hit to his left. This year, he's up 3. That's a massive swing in the right direction. His whole career, he's been great, ranging towards third but coming in on balls and ranging towards first has always been difficult for him. So seeing him turn a career-long weakness into a strength is great.

Henderson is still not even 25 years old. There are multiple highly regarded prospects who are his age and older. He is not washed. The talent he demonstrated in his first few seasons is still in him; he just needs to figure out what's going on right now, make the adjustment, and he'll be back to the player he's always been. If he can combine his new defensive improvement with the offensive ability he displayed in previous years, he'll be an even better player than he's ever been before. Orioles fans should be confident they have not seen Henderson's last really good offensive season.

Henderson did just go 3-3 with a walk and a homer in his last game, and all of those balls were hit well over 100 mph. He’s had a couple of multi-hit games that made fans want to believe the slump was over, only for it to continue, so it’s hard to get too carried away. However, if a season turnaround starter last night and Henderson’s offensive game is back, if he can combine it with what he did on defense over the first few months, he might play his way into the MVP conversation.

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