Scout confirmed what Orioles fans already knew about Ryan Mountcastle’s future

There was a point in time when Ryan Mountcastle was thought of as a critical piece of the Baltimore Orioles' future. The 2015 first-round pick burst onto the scene in 2020 with a .333/.386/.492 line in 35 games, justifying his top prospect billing. Mountcastle followed that up with his first full season in 2021, looking like a future star. He blasted 33 homers with a .255/.309/.487 line injecting optimism for his future throughout the organization.

The years to come saw some stagnation. From 2022 through 2024, he posted wRC+ numbers ranging from 107 to 113, topping the 20-homer plateau just once with 22 in 2022. Still, an above-average performer with the bat, Mountcastle seemed a long way from the star the club had once envisioned.

Then 2025 happened and the 28-year-old found his future in Baltimore very much in question.

Scout believes a change of scenery could be the best possible outcome for both Ryan Mountcastle and the Orioles

A prolonged early-season slump this year doomed his season from the start. Mountcastle finished the season's first month with a pitiful .194/.240/.301 line. While he hit .298 in May, it was empty contact as a 3% walk rate and .096 ISO ensured he was providing nothing more than harmless singles.

Mountcastle missed June and July with a strained hamstring. When he returned in August, he raked, batting .305/.348/.463, showing off the talent that made him so promising way back when. However, when the calendar flipped to September, he came crashing back to earth. A .522 OPS over the season's final month, fueled by a 38.2% strikeout rate, quelled any chatter that he had finally turned a corner.

In a MASN Sports article, Roch Kubatko spoke to a rival organization's scout who offered up some feedback on Mountcastle.

“I liked Mountcastle. He’s probably at the point where he just needs a change of scenery. Maybe you put him in a different ballpark and with a different voice in his head, and he taps back into some of that power. You’re talking about a guy who’s hit .265-.270 in the big leagues. I don’t see a reason why he all of a sudden he wouldn’t hit," the scout said.

Adding some further context, he continued, “Even if he taps into some more power and he has to sell out a little bit to get it, let’s just say he gets back to knocking between 17-24 (homers) and he hits .250-.260  doing it. Like, I’ll take that for the upgrade in power.”

That might not be the sizzling production once envisioned after his 2021 campaign, but that would bring him back to the realm of productivity.

For the Orioles, a change of scenery makes sense as well. Coby Mayo might be struggling, but at 23, he deserves more runway than the older Mountcastle at first base. The balancing act between Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo between catcher and DH also limits at-bats for Mountcastle, whose already poor glove isn't suited for anywhere else on the diamond.

Then there's the issue of cost. Mountcastle is entering his final year of arbitration. After making $6.79 million in 2025, MLB Trade Rumors projects his salary will jump to $7.8 million for 2026.

For a team that needs to invest every free penny into the pitching staff, it simply doesn't make sense to pay that much for a player who is struggling to reach even average offensive performance and provides no defensive value. As a result, a fresh start would do worlds of good for both parties.