Orioles Rumors: Baltimore slugger could face surprising offseason exit

For two seasons, the Baltimore Orioles’ problem wasn’t a shortage of bats — it was where to stash all of them. That’s the cost of a contending window arriving ahead of schedule: the lineup fills, the arbitration clock ticks louder, and tough decisions stop being hypothetical.

As Baltimore maps the winter, one of those decisions has a familiar name attached. Ryan Mountcastle, a homegrown slugger who helped bridge the franchise from rebuild to relevance, suddenly looks like the piece who no longer fits the puzzle perfectly.

It’s roster math colliding with timing. Baltimore’s infield corner has turned into a turnstile of high-upside options, and the club’s needs have shifted toward run prevention. Specifically, rotation depth and late-inning leverage.

Orioles Rumors: Ryan Mountcastle could face surprising offseason exit

There’s a strong chance Mountcastle enters this offseason as the “odd man out,” and the reasons are as blunt as they are layered. After a strong start to his big-league career, the 2025 season became a slog: an extended hamstring injury cost him significant time, and the bat never truly re-synced when he returned, culminating in a career-low .653 OPS. That timing hurts even more because 2026 is his final year of club control.

Money isn’t the only factor, but it always plays a role. Mountcastle earned just under $6.8 million in 2025 and is projected to land around $7.8 million in his final arb year. That’s real coin for a club that can replicate his position internally, especially if the front office wants to redirect salary toward starting pitching and bullpen help. When production dips right before a raise, teams listen to their spreadsheets.

The internal pressure is real, too. Coby Mayo split first-base duty with Mountcastle in 2025 and then seized the runway when the hamstring sidelined the veteran. Mayo’s September (.301/.393/.548) read like an audition tape the casting director never knew they needed—impact contact, lift, and the kind of presence that makes a lineup feel a batter deeper. Layer in the organization’s conveyor belt of bats (with catcher/first base/DH traffic from the system looming) and you start to see the squeeze.

All of that pushes the conversation toward outcomes. A trade is the most logical path: even off a down-year, Mountcastle’s track record as an above-average hitter will interest clubs seeking a cost-controlled upgrade at first base or DH. Baltimore, meanwhile, can use that leverage to chase what it truly needs — innings that miss bats, and trusted relief help for the seventh through ninth. 

If the trade market underwhelms, a harsh fallback exists: non-tendering him rather than paying the full arb freight. That would be a jolt, but not unprecedented when roster fit and salary projection diverge this sharply. The longest-shot scenario is a straight run-back with everyone in the same room, letting spring competition decide. Given the context, and even Mountcastle’s own public doubts about his future in Baltimore, that feels more like a holding pattern than a plan.

However it resolves, the decision will say plenty about how the Orioles intend to protect this window. Moving a familiar bat is never easy, but contending teams live with discomfort when it lines up with need.