Ryan Mountcastle's prolonged slump is even worse than you imagined

Ryan Mountcastle struggled through the first month of this season and has been unable to recapture the success of 2021, where he eclipsed the 30 home run mark for the only time in his career. Entering May 6, the Orioles' first baseman has a 50% whiff rate against breaking pitches.

As of Tuesday, Mountcastle is hitting only .185 against breaking pitches, which is down tremendously from his .253 average against such pitches last season. If Mountcastle wants to turn this season around, he is going to have to adjust to breakers. It is worth noting that the pair of home runs Mountcastle has hit this year came on breaking pitches. He still has time to turn it around, and the Orioles will need him to if they want to get back into the race and compete in the American League.

April was Mountcastle's worst month in on-base plus slugging percentage since April 2021. He would go on to correct course that year, but after a couple of disappointing seasons, time may be running out for the big righty.

Mountcastle had a .528 OPS in April, which is higher than his 2021 April, where his OPS was .515. He has struggled to reach base this season with an abysmal 4.5% walk rate, with only five on the season. Through April, Mountcastle was in the 15th percentile for walk-to-strikeout ratio, which does not bode well. If he's to improve this season, he has to work the counts better. If he's unable to do that, the Orioles are willing to shop him in the trade market.

Ryan Mountcastle searching for answers as time with the Orioles dwindles

Mountcastle can turn his season around by getting back to his career average against breaking pitches. Throughout the past three seasons, Mountcastle hit .253, .253, and .263 against breaking pitches, with the highest whiff rate being 35.1% in 2022 (per Baseball Savant). Mountcastle has struggled mightily against breaking pitches this season at a rate much higher than before.

Mountcastle also has poor numbers against fastballs this season, hitting .192 against such pitches before Tuesday. He has a much higher contact rate, and his expected batting average is .286, which means that he is simply getting unlucky. If he begins to get those to fall, his confidence may improve and lead to him jumping on pitches he likes earlier, rather than waiting for the pitchers to get in their comfort zone during an at-bat.

Mountcastle has yet to hit a home run against the fastball, which has been where most of his homers have come in his career. If he begins to slug on fastballs, expect his stats to improve all around, giving the Orioles more faith that he can still be the guy at first base.

Currently, the Orioles are in a limbo with a strong young core and poor pitching. Mountcastle can be a part of the core, or he could be a trade chip used to bolster the pitching staff to get the season back on track.

If Mountcastle is unable to break from this slump, the Orioles might move on from the former top prospect in favor of Coby Mayo. Mayo has struggled at the big league level in his young career, but with another season of Mountcastle fighting for consistency at the plate, Baltimore may see it fit to move on from their first baseman.

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