Orioles’ playoff aspirations may come down to this budding star finally taking a step forward

The 2025 season was a disappointment for the Baltimore Orioles, and while it wasn't a surprise that a low-ceiling rotation held together by over-the-hill veterans, literal unknowns, and duct tape didn't work out, what was more concerning was the offense.

The Orioles are chock full of young talents, but many put together underwhelming 2025 campaigns. There was Coby Mayo, whose performance was so bad that his entire future is in doubt. There was Colton Cowser hitting .196 while striking out at a 35.6% clip. Gunnar Henderson played through a shoulder injury that sapped some of his performance.

Many more didn't live up to expectations to one degree or another. Additions like Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward will help. The veteran duo has long track records of production and will help stabilize the lineup, but without help from the youngsters, it won't be enough.

Baltimore hit 191 homers last season, good for 11th in the league, but the club also ranked 24th in runs scored (677), 24th in batting average (.235), and 21st in OPS (.699). They'll need more, and it's clear that the biggest burden for improvement rests on the shoulders of Jackson Holliday.

Jackson Holliday breaking out is critical to the Orioles' postseason dreams in 2026

It's fair to say that expectations are high when you're the No. 1 pick in the draft. They're even higher when you're the son of a seven-time MLB All-Star and former batting champ. The temperature ratchets up even higher when you make your big league debut at just 20 years old. Such is life for Holliday.

The youngster struggled mightily in his 60-game run in 2024, slashing .189/.255/.311, which was good for a 62 wRC+. With that as a baseline, his .242/.314/.375/96 wRC+ performance in 2025 was a big leap, yet somehow still disappointing.

That's because Holliday isn't supposed to be hovering around league-average offensive performance. More than any other youngster, other than Henderson, he's supposed to be a superstar.

And while the Orioles are trying to figure out if Jordan Westburg has another gear, and if Dylan Beavers can do anything other than draw a ridiculous amount of walks, they'll need someone to step up.

The trio of Alonso, Henderson, and Ward has the potential to be formidable, but if Baltimore is planning on making any real noise, they'll need help. That's where the next best thing comes into play, and that is clearly Jackson Holliday.

On the plus side, he just turned 22 and has already shown significant growth. Even last season, he cut his strikeout rate by just over seven points from the first half to the second half, dropping from 24.7% to 17.4%, while increasing his walk rate from 5.4% to 13%. On top of that, he joined an elite club in franchise history and showed that, beyond talent, he has the character and work ethic to succeed.

If he takes a leap in 2026, it could propel the Orioles to the playoffs despite playing in the highly contentious AL East. If not, we might find that there are a few too many holes in this lineup for Baltimore to seriously contend.