Orioles might've already learned the sad truth about Coby Mayo before stretch run

The Baltimore Orioles were supposed to have an embarrassment of riches on the position player side of the ball. Youngsters like Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, Coby Mayo, and others were supposed to form a star-studded core that was going to put Baltimore in the driver's seat of the AL East now and for years to come.

Some, like Henderson, have panned out exactly how the Orioles had hoped. Others have taken more circuitous routes, though there have been enough flashes to justify the optimism that they are just scratching the surface and soon will live up to their billing. Then you have Coby Mayo, whose struggles are getting too big to ignore.

To say that Mayo's tenure in Baltimore has been disappointing would be an understatement, and now with the 2025 season's stretch run upon us, the Orioles may have already learned the sad truth about their once-promising prospect.

The Orioles may have to face the truth that this is who Coby Mayo is

It's easy to forget, given his current struggles, but Mayo was once one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Baseball America had him reaching as high as No. 8 in their Top-100 list last season, noting his tremendous raw power as his greatest asset.

With a .287/.364/.562 line and 22 homers in 89 games at Triple-A Norfolk last season, it was easy to see the strapping young slugger tapping into that immense power potential. That performance earned Mayo a cup of coffee in the bigs, and to say things didn't go well would be an understatement.

In 17 games and 46 plate appearances, the youngster put up a putrid .098/.196/..098 line while striking out nearly half the time with a 47.8% K-rate. While it's not uncommon for top prospects to struggle upon their first taste of MLB action, especially with the small sample caveat thrown in, the warning signs were there.

Mayo has a long swing with a hitch, which often makes him late to the ball and creates some serious holes in his bat path that are hard to overcome, even with good bat speed and well-above-average raw power. He has some other mechanical flaws as well that prevent him from tapping into what should be his greatest asset.

We've seen those deficiencies rear their ugly heads this season as well. Mayo has gone up and down between Triple-A Norfolk and the big league roster a few times this season, and in total, his major league line is a pathetic .188/.330/.325 with just six homers in 63 games played. His strikeout rate might not be as astronomically high as it was during his brief stint last year, but still, at 29.4% it leaves much to be desired.

The underlying data tells the story. While Mayo doesn't have enough plate appearances to qualify on the Baseball Savant leaderboards, it's clear that aside from his 74.6 miles per hour average bat speed, he's significantly below average in everything else.

A hard hit rate of 39.4% puts him well below what you'd think a player with his power would be, and he struggles to sufficiently square the ball up and get the barrel on it. Not only that, but holes in his swing are real, with a 31.3% whiff rate, which is well below average. When you combine the propensity to whiff with a penchant for chasing balls out of the zone (28.4% chase rate), you get a perfect storm that results in a lot of weak contact and a ton of K's.

Perhaps most concerning is that Mayo hasn't looked any better down at Norfolk either. In 45 Triple-A games, he's slashing just .226/.318/.452. While the power has played more, it's a far cry from what he has typically done in the minors, leading one to question if his confidence is shot.

Without a major overhaul, Mayo looks like a power hitter who struggles to tap into his power, and when you combine that with the plate discipline issues, it becomes a slippery slope that is very difficult to overcome. The Orioles have to face the reality that this is who he is as a player, barring a truly miraculous heater down the stretch.

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