Orioles aren’t fooling anyone regarding their trade intentions for Coby Mayo

Unlike previous offseasons, where it felt like the front office was passive and their plans were unknown, the Baltimore Orioles have been pretty easy to read so far. From the beginning, the Orioles have maintained that they were going to be aggressive, and that has proven true with the relatively early signing of Ryan Helsley as well as the franchise-altering addition of Pete Alonso. Some have understandably pointed out that the Orioles' starting pitching need hasn't been completely addressed yet, but trading for Shane Baz is a hell of a start, especially since he didn't even cost them Coby Mayo.

Mayo is in a weird spot at the moment. No one denies that he is a talented bat, but signing Alonso seemingly closes off a number of potential plate appearances that would have gone to Mayo. Front office head Mike Elias tried to downplay those concerns in saying after the move, "There is still a lot of playing time available for [Mayo] on a team that has Pete Alonso now", but that doesn't really pass the smell test.

In fact, Mayo may never be more likely to be traded than he is right now.

Coby Mayo's future with Orioles probably involves getting traded at this point

If Mayo had played better in the majors, this decision would be a lot tougher, and Baltimore probably wouldn't have bothered with signing Alonso. However, after posting a .634 OPS in his first 340 plate appearances in the big leagues, the Orioles had to decide how long they could realistically afford to wait for Mayo to figure things out. With Alonso around now, it sort of feels like they have decided that they can't risk things with him.

In deciding to trade Mayo now, they still have a chance of capitalizing on his prospect pedigree, which is very good. Teams can wave off one or two speed bumps at the beginning of a career, but the longer Mayo struggles in MLB, the lower his value goes. Baltimore is just talking a tough game here to keep Mayo's value higher by saying that he is still in their plans, but that falls apart under pretty basic scrutiny.

With the Orioles potentially needing another top rotation arm, having a trade chip with the upside that Mayo has could pay off in a big way. The remaining free agent starters worth having are going to cost a bunch of money, but trading for Joe Ryan or Freddy Peralta at least feels possible. If either trade happens, don't be surprised whatsoever if Mayo is in the package going the other way.