Grade for Orioles’ Ryan Helsley signing feels hopelessly optimistic

When you strip away the spin, the Baltimore Orioles just paid $28 million for a lottery ticket in the ninth inning — and then handed the player the right to cash out early if it hits.

On paper, Ryan Helsley looks like exactly the kind of arm Baltimore needed after Félix Bautista’s injury left a massive crater at the back of the bullpen. From 2022–24, Helsley was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, running an ERA under 2.00 and blowing hitters away with triple-digit heat and a wipeout slider. That version of Helsley absolutely looks like a $14 million-a-year closer.

But that’s not the guy who hit the market in the 2025 offseason.

Orioles’ Ryan Helsley gamble looks a lot riskier than its “A” grade suggests

The most recent version of Helsley is the one who completely melted down after landing with the Mets, coughing up a 7.20 ERA in 22 appearances. You can talk about pitch tipping, bad luck on fly balls, and all the expected-stats comfort food you want, but at some point the results matter. The Orioles aren’t paying for a rehab project at the back of the bullpen; they’re paying for stability in the one inning they can’t afford chaos.

That’s why Zachary Rymer of Bleacher Report slapping an “A” grade on this deal feels wildly generous. Yes, the fit makes sense. The Orioles desperately needed a proven late-inning arm with Bautista out. Yes, the stuff is still there. If the front office is convinced they’ve diagnosed and fixed whatever went wrong in New York, you can understand why they were willing to lean into the upside.

But the contract structure tilts risk toward Baltimore, not away from it. If Helsley bounces back to his All-Star form, he can simply opt out after one year and go hunting for a bigger payday. If he doesn’t, the Orioles are stuck holding the bag on the downside of the gamble. 

Can this move work? Absolutely. The Orioles might very well look smart if Helsley clicks right away and anchors a deep October run. But calling it an “A” ignores the obvious: this is a high-wire act in the most volatile part of the roster, and it’s being graded like a safe, straightforward win.