Orioles fixing this key flaw in Ryan Helsley’s game is easier said than done

With the loss (again) of Felix Bautista, the Baltimore Orioles were tasked with finding a high leverage reliever this offseason that could reliably close games and (hopefully) do so in dominating fashion. On the surface, the Orioles look to have done just that after signing Ryan Helsley to a two-year deal. A closer look, however, reveals a more complicated picture.

Helsley was easily one of MLB's best relievers from 2022-2024 where he posted a combined 1.83 ERA across 152 appearances thanks to his cannon of an arm and propensity to miss bats. However, he struggled last season, especially after being dealt to the New York Mets at the trade deadline. It became apparent that Helsley was tipping his pitches leading to a dreadful 7.20 ERA in New York.

At first glance, it seems like a pretty simple diagnosis: if Helsley was tipping his pitches with the Mets, just figure out how, and then the Orioles coaching staff can correct it. Easy enough, right? Well, Helsley's issues may be deeper than just tipping his pitches.

Ryan Helsley's issues with his fastball may give Orioles fits when trying to fix him

As a general rule, when MLB's Mike Petriello has an observation about a player especially when it is data-driven, it is best to listen. Petriello concedes that tipping his pitches was very likely to be a problem here, but it feels possible that it exacerbated a pre-existing decline in the quality of Helsley's four-seam fastball.

A closer look at Helsley's Statcast profile seems to confirm that suspicion. In 2022, Helsley's fastball ranked in the 91st percentile when it came to run value. In 2023, it dipped to being slightly above average and the same was true in 2024. In 2025, his fastball cratered to being in the bottom 2% in baseball. Tipping 100 mph fastballs can only account for so much of that drop-off.

If this was a velocity problem, it would actually be a big argument as to why the Orioles shouldn't have signed him at all. However, his fastball has maintained it's velocity over the same period of time and his slider has remained one of the better pitches in all of baseball.

Petriello's observation that his four-seamer has lost some of the ride at the top of the zone it once had, combined with a moderate decrease in the pitch's spin over the last few years (2643 RPM in 2022, 2536 in 2025), is a problem that is harder to fix than just "get healthy and/or throw harder".

In fact, the fix is often worse than the status quo in these situations. Baltimore can tinker with Helsley's delivery and release point to see if it helps, but that also risks introducing new problems that may make him strictly worse as a pitcher. There's still a lot to like about signing Helsley and fixing the pitch tipping will help, but having him regain his previous form may take more work than Orioles fans were hoping.