Offseason roadmap Orioles must avoid during November pre-lockout frenzy

Free agency is here, and while all has been quiet so far, it isn't expected to stay this way for long. Most industry insiders believe that a feeding frenzy will ensue before a lockout on December 1. With the General Manager Meetings set to commence this Tuesday, November 10 in Las Vegas, things are expected to heat up quickly. With so many needs, the Baltimore Orioles can't afford to miss out.

The Orioles hired Jared Banner in part to help expand the thinking in the front office and assist Mike Elias in targeting players in acquisitions. Banner has a keen eye for player development, and while we're looking for Baltimore to put together a 2027 roster that can return to the playoffs, he could help Elias find under-the-radar talents who can blossom and build a sustainable future.

With that said, kicking the can down the road won't work as a strategy this winter. The clock is ticking, and if the Orioles sit on their hands, they might find that when the lockout ends, all of the top talent has found another home. To that end, this would be the worst road map Baltimore could put together to construct the 2027.

This Orioles roadmap would bring more of the same to Baltimore in 2027

Allowing Trevor Rogers to be the only significant rotation "addition"

The Orioles extending the qualifying offer to Trevor Rogers was a no-brainer decision, and one that paves the way for the talented southpaw to return to the Charm City, one way or another. Bringing back the 29-year-old, especially on a shorter-term deal, would meake the starting rotation stronger than it is on paper today, but that's kind of the problem.

The club has shown a reticence to offer long-term deals even to top-end starters, with Corbin Burnes serving as a prime example. While a big-money ace would be ideal, there are other front-of-the-rotation starters who could be had for two-or-three-year deals. If the Orioles pass on that cohort that includes quality arms like Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, and others, they'll ensure that the issues that have plagued their starters for the last few years will continue.

Signing a catcher below the "Carson Kelly Line"

Despite a .222/.291/.406 line from Samuel Basallo in 2026, the 22 year old is still the present and future behind the plate. That doesn't mean he can't use a little help, though. The Orioles might be scared off from Ryan Jeffers due to the qualifying offer. They may fear that Tyler Stephenson gets overpaid as a result of Jeffers' situation. The next best option, then, is Carson Kelly.

Baltimore learned the hard way that relying on glove-first, flash-in-the-pan catchers as they did with Carlos Narvaez and his .104/.198/.117 line down the stretch is a bad idea. Kelly is the last catcher in free agency who can reliably step into a starting role if the need arises. On top of that, his 134 wRC+ against southpaws since 2023 means he can protect the left-handed-hitting Basallo and further allow him to thrive.

Hanging onto Jordan Westburg and not taking advantage of a weak third base market

One could look at Jordan Westburg and feel that dealing him now would be selling an asset at its low point. That seems reasonable on the surface, but it ignores the reality of the market, as well as the risk that Baltimore faces.

There is no shortage of teams that could use an upgrade at the hot corner. When you factor in Westburg's ability to play second base, that list of potential suitors only grows. Teruaki Sato might be the cream of the crop among free-agent third basemen, but as an NPB import, there's less certainty about him than most. Additionally, there are some teams that have doubts about his glove at third, and see him more as a first baseman or corner outfielder.

Beyond Sato, the top free-agent options are Alec Bohm, a below-average defender with a career 100 wRC+, and Eugenio Suarez, a 35-year-old coming off a down year offensively and who is better suited as a DH at this point in his career. For many teams, Westburg is a better alternative.

The Orioles have Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Coby Mayo capable of manning the hot corner. They might view Westburg as having the higher ceiling, but both of those players showed flashes in 2026. More importantly, Westburg has never played more than 107 games in a single season. Another injury-plagued campaign in 2027 would kill his trade value once and for all.

Letting the qualifying offer scare them away from Seiya Suzuki or Randy Arozarena

The Orioles need to upgrade their outfield desperately. Only two teams saw their outfield units put up a worse OPS than Baltimore's .680 mark: the Houston Astros and the Cincinnati Reds. There are two top sluggers on the market, Seiya Suzuki and Randy Arozarena, and both players got tagged with the qualifying offer earlier this month.

In some cases, the loss of a draft pick is enough to make a team stay away, but in this case, landing one of the two is vital. Zooming out, the Orioles as a team ranked 22nd in slugging percentage with a .396 mark, and 21st in OPS at .710. Pete Alonso needs help, and bounce-backs from Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, and other youngsters isn't a strategy. If Baltimore doesn't land one of these two big bats it will regret it.

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