An Orioles reunion with Kevin Gausman is almost a perfect solution except for one glaring concern

With the offseason now underway and free agents eligible to sign with teams, the Baltimore Orioles should be active in the free agent market as they look to add to a starting rotation that currently has Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, and Brandon Young penciled in. 

Trevor Rogers is a logical option as both sides have expressed interest in a reunion, and as the Orioles have shown the last few offseasons, a surprise trade for a rotation arm is never out of the question. 

But if the Orioles are looking for an option to strengthen the backend of their rotation, old friend Kevin Gausman could be a solid fit for the organization. 

The 35-year-old righty, who spent more than five seasons in an Orioles uniform from 2013 to 2018, is coming off his sixth straight season of 170-plus innings, showing that he can still be a reliable arm capable of working deep into games. 

While his combined ERA between his time with the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs this season sat at 4.51, a jump of nearly a full run compared to his 2025 campaign, Gausman’s 4.02 expected ERA and 3.74 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) were more encouraging signs. That, along with his standard 24% strikeout rate and sub-7% walk rate, is a comforting sign that the former first-round pick should still have a few productive seasons left in the tank. 

In their recently released free agent prediction article, MLB Trade Rumors predicts a two-year, $44 million deal for Gausman, with at least one writer projecting the Orioles to be the team that lands him. 

A reunion with Kevin Gausman makes sense for the Baltimore Orioles, but there may be a real cause for concern

While many of Gausman’s underlying numbers suggest that he remains a consistent, durable starter who would be a valuable rotation arm in 2027, there are some troubling signs if you look just a little deeper.

Using FanGraphs’ Stuff+ metrics, Gausman’s stuff appears to have ticked down across the board. His fastball graded out at a 100 Stuff+ last season (100 being league average) but dropped to a 96 Stuff+ this season, its lowest mark since 2021 with the San Francisco Giants. And that’s not the only troubling sign with Gausman’s fastball. 

According to Baseball Savant, Gausman’s fastball had a run value of 24 last season with Toronto, which ranked in the 99th percentile of the majors. This season, his fastball run value was just 9, which was still in the 85th percentile of the big leagues but represented a significant drop compared to 2025.

Gausman’s fastball lost nearly one mph of velocity this season, and hitters feasted on the offering, hitting .289 with a .453 slugging percentage against it. The pitch also produced a 15% whiff rate, the lowest of his career.

After allowing less than 1.00 HR/9 over his previous five seasons, opponents tagged Gausman for 1.32 HR/9 in 2026, in large part due to their success against his fastball. On the surface, that looks concerning, but was his 1.32 HR/9 skewed by his time in Chicago? With the Blue Jays, Gausman allowed 1.06 HR/9, slightly elevated from his previous five seasons, but nothing too alarming. With Chicago, that number spiked to 1.92 HR/9. Looking at his expected home runs by park on Baseball Savant, Gausman would have allowed 31 home runs at Wrigley Field, the most of any ballpark other than Milwaukee. That number drops to 25 when pitching in Toronto and 23 when pitching in Baltimore. 

So maybe the spike in home runs allowed isn’t as concerning as it initially appears. But can a team like the Orioles trust that a 35-year-old pitcher with declining stuff can rebound in 2027, or are his declining fastball velocity and the increased production against the offering signs of continued regression? A projected two-year, $44 million deal may very well pay off and be worth the risk, but with even more pressure to produce a winning season and at least a playoff run, the Orioles should probably look elsewhere for upgrades. 

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