Orioles extending Trevor Rogers the qualifying offer is a big first step towards solving the rotation

For years now, the Baltimore Orioles have seemed to be on the cusp of really breaking through competitively but have always found a way to come up short of expectations. And time and time again, many have pointed to the starting rotation as simply not having the edge to really get them over that hump. A lack of star power has been at the forefront of the O's rotational shortcomings. They've too often left big (and frankly attainable) names on the free agent or trade tables — or, in the case of arms like Corbin Burnes, let them walk for nothing rather than ponying up.

However, after the deadline to offer free agents qualifying offers passed earlier this week, the front office took some key steps to ensure another strong starting pitching talent doesn't escape their grasp too easily, at least. This comes after the Orioles offered their current front-line starter, Trevor Rogers, the one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer on Monday.

Now, offering the qualifying offer doesn't mean that Rogers is guaranteed to be back in the fold in 2027 and beyond. And perhaps a longer-term deal is in everyone's best interest. That being said, from a strategic standpoint, this was the best decision Mike Elias and new GM Jared Banner could've made with Rogers.

Worst-case scenario, Rogers declines the qualifying offer and walks in free agency. By making him this offer, the Orioles ensure high-round draft compensation for losing him, meaning they won't let another arm simply walk. Traditionally, QOs can also act as a deterrent for prospective buyers who covet their draft selections, meaning the O's may've just narrowed the field for his services already without doing all that much. And in a weaker free agent class, Rogers is surely to be coveted around the league.

On top of that, there's the matter of the looming lockout in December. Many free agents will likely want to get their contracts signed before a work stoppage comes into play and the financial future of MLB contracts could be radically altered. Free agency can take time sometimes, and weighing new team options may not be what a player in Rogers' current situation may want to do when over $23 million guaranteed is sitting on the table for 2027.

A potential Rogers return is a good start, but the Orioles need another splash in the rotation

Now, Rogers wasn't an ace per se in 2026 following his sudden burst onto the scene as a front-end starter in 2025. However, there's still a lot to be excited about regarding him hopefully holding a key spot in the staff in 2027. His low-4.00s ERA was still respectable; his expected metrics looked even better. He was above average in terms of the quality of contact he surrendered, and he was an elite arm when it came to limiting walks and inducing chases.

This could come in handy pitching behind a more traditional ace. And it only makes the solid campaigns from Kyle Bradish and Shane Baz look even better now that they're sitting in the lower-leverage three-to-five range in the rotation.

So, regardless of if Rogers is pitching in the confines of Camden Yards in 2027 or not, the need for the bona fide number one starter in the Charm City is critical this winter. They made the postseason again when Burnes was brought into the fold for 2024, so they've seen firsthand that this formula works. Every top contender will be looking to Tarik Skubal (and it's not a bad option for Elias and Co. to kick the tires on him too), but names like Freddy Peralta or Michael King, or perhaps older options like Kevin Gausman or Sonny Gray would also suffice as number-one-caliber options.

And again, Rogers or not (but especially if he doesn't return), the starting pitching shopping shouldn't stop at an ace. The supporting cast of Kyle Bradish and Shan Baz could benefit from another impact signing. Names like Shota Imanaga or Kris Bubic could be enticing targets here.

There's a lot of work to be done this winter, but ensuring they've covered their bases with Rogers to get the offseason started is the best opening move they could've made.

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