As we've progressed through the offseason, we've spent a lot of time thinking about how the Orioles can potentially replace Corbin Burnes' production in 2025. One of the most common ideas has been for Baltimore to acquire star righty Dylan Cease from the Padres.
There are a few reasons why Cease makes sense as a target for the Orioles. Like Burnes in 2024, Cease has just one year of control remaining before reaching free agency. He's set to hit the market after the 2025 season and is likely going to get a truckload of money from someone. However, having just one year of control left would seemingly make him more affordable in terms of prospect capital than someone like Garret Crochet, for instance.
But there's also the fact that the Padres seem to be a bit hesitant when it comes to payroll now that their former owner Peter Seidler has passed away. Their new managing partners don't have the same incentives to spend that Seidler did, and their roster is loaded with high-priced contracts. Moving Cease and the almost $14 million he's due in 2025 makes a lot of sense if the team is seriously considering shaving payroll.
The Orioles might be out of the Dylan Cease sweepstakes at the Padres reported asking price
To this point though, no deal has been made. And on Saturday, new details emerged about the Orioles' talks to acquire Cease that shed a little more light on why a deal has yet to be completed.
Roch Kubatko of MASN wrote on Saturday morning that when the Orioles called AJ Preller to check on Cease, Preller expressed interest in the group of Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, and Coby Mayo. Westburg, of course, is coming off an All Star appearance and appears poised to be a major part of the Orioles offense for the foreseeable future. Basallo is one of the top prospects in the entire sport, and Mayo was a top-10 guy as recently as last year.
Orioles GM Mike Elias has seemed pretty hesitant to put those types of players on the trade market in the past. He gave up good talent to acquire Burnes, but as good as Joey Ortiz and DL Hall were, they weren't quite the same caliber players and prospects as Westburg, Basallo, and Mayo. Given that Burnes was arguably a more accomplished starter when the O's traded for him than Cease is now, it's not entirely surprising to see Elias back away from that type of deal.
It's certainly possible that the Padres just aren't interested in moving Cease unless they get blown away by any potential offer. After all, they're still set to be in a tight race in the NL West and the NL Wild Card race, and their team is clearly in win-now mode. Selling Cease for parts doesn't make a ton of sense if you're Preller, so of course he wants to aim high.
At that reported cost, it's not clear that Cease will get moved before the trade deadline. At this point, it seems most likely that Cease will start the year in San Diego and they'll let it ride through the All Star break. If the Padres are out of it at that point, then they can offload Cease and recoup some of that value, and at least show their fans that they tried. As for the Orioles, they'll have to find another solution if they want to acquire an ace before Opening Day.