Weighing Orioles' potential trade packages for two top starting pitchers

Over the last two seasons, the Baltimore Orioles have been one of baseball’s best teams. They have a combined record of 192-132, with a division title and a wild card birth to show for their efforts. They traded for an ace prior to the 2024 season with great results and they could be looking to try and duplicate those results in 2025.

Now that Corbin Burnes is a free agent and Kyle Bradish is yet to return from Tommy John surgery, the top spot in the team’s rotation is up for grabs. Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin are the two candidates to be the Orioles’ number one guy, but outside help could be on the way. The Orioles have been linked to both Dylan Cease and Luis Castillo since their respective teams have made them available for trade. But which pitcher is a better fit?

Going into his age 29 season, Dylan Cease has solidified himself as a true MLB ace, and a durable one at that. He’s made at least 32 starts in each of the last four seasons and pitched an average of 179 innings per season, with a career best 189.1 last season. Cease has averaged 223 strikeouts in those four seasons and would sit atop the Orioles rotation if he can be acquired from the San Diego Padres. 

The Padres appear to be doing a minor tear down of their team, listening to trade offers for Manny Machado, Luis Arraez and Xander Bogaerts along with Cease. Younger stars like Fernando Tatis Jr, Jackson Merrill, and Michael King have not been made available. This suggests that they’re looking towards the future as opposed to trying to win now. 

What would it take for the Orioles to land one of Dylan Cease or Luis Castillo?

Any trade with San Diego is going to be prospect heavy. The load would get a little lighter due to Cease only having one year of team control before he can become a free agent, similar to Burnes last year. Cease isn’t as established as Burnes was last season but he won’t come cheap. 

Luis Castillo is another durable starter who has made 30 or more starts five times in his career (he didn’t his rookie season after being called up in June and he made 12 starts in 2020 due to the COVID shortened season). He has the ability to pitch deep into games and has gone over 190 innings twice. Castillo is also under contract through 2027 with a vesting option for 2028. 

The Seattle Mariners are shopping Castillo in an effort to win now. As much as Castillo can help a team win, the Mariners are loaded with starting pitching but need to improve their offense. These two teams seem like perfect trade partners.

The Orioles need to move some major league players around to make room for everyone on the roster. They simply have too many talented position players to put in the field. A trade between these two franchises makes so much sense it should almost be mandatory.

With the remaining pitchers that are available, plan A should still be to re-sign Burnes. If the Birds are unable to do so, Castillo should be plan B. The O’s already have people in-house to offset the loss of those players and Castillo is under contract for the next 3-4 seasons. Trading for Cease means sending away more prospects for one season of a pitcher, who could then look to get a quarter billion over eight years in the following offseason.