MLB insider raises questions about Orioles' commitment to spend

We've been talking about the Orioles' rotation all winter and even after the signing of Tomoyuki Sugano, we're likely not going to stop until a nominative ace is brought into town. Many O's fans thought this was going to be the year where Mike Elias would be willing to splurge in free agency. With a new and improved ownership group in tow, Elias seemingly has all the necessary resources to make a big signing.

However, Sugano's deal is for one year and $13 million, a far cry from the type of contract we'd expected. And even with the O's going to bat for Tyler O'Neill and bringing him in for 3-years and $49.5 million, it's still not the type of long-term deal many O's fans had hoped for.

There's still time for the O's to sign a player like Corbin Burnes, or even a big right handed bat like Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso, though the latter two are less than ideal fits, at least compared to Burnes. Likewise, there's still plenty of time for the O's to make a trade to acquire an ace, much like they did last year with Burnes, who was acquired this past February.

And if Elias is able to work a trade to acquire someone like Dylan Cease or Framber Valdez, it'll put the Orioles in a strong position to re-capture the AL East title in 2025. But if that's the route the Orioles take this year, there will still be questions surrounding the team's willingness, and potentially their ability, to go after the biggest names in free agency.

Will the Orioles ever be big players in the free agent market?

While guys like Jeff Passan have gone on record this winter and claimed that the Orioles could potentially add two top-of-the-rotation type arms, we now have another MLB insider suggesting that the trade market is the much more likely destination for the Orioles' shopping habits.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic went on Foul Territory and spoke about the Orioles' approach to the offseason. Rosenthal mentioned Cease as a great target for the Orioles, and that even after their trade to acquire Burnes last year, Baltimore still has a strong enough farm system to withstand another significant trade package to nab a pitcher of Cease's caliber.

But one other part of Rosenthal's segment stood out. Rosenthal was asked if it were more likely that the Orioles were balking at the total contract value of a theoretical Burnes deal, or if they were more concerned about the length of the contract. Rosenthal replied that the Orioles might not be wise to be shelling out that kind of money for free agents to begin with, seeing as they're realistically still a smaller market team with lower revenues than some of their counterparts.

That's true, to a point. Yes, the Orioles are technically a small market team. And yes, their revenues pale in comparison to those of the New York teams, or the Dodgers, for example. But as of this morning, the O's are projected to start the year around $141 million in terms of their CBT payroll figure. That's a slight increase compared to where they finished the year in 2024, but it's also nearly $100 million below the first CBT penalty line.

From where they're sitting, the Orioles should be able to add a top-line player and still be comfortably within their payroll range. Adding another $30-$40 million to their 2025 payroll is feasible, and given their strong, young core, might be one of the better decisions they can make to supplement the roster heading into 2025 and beyond.

A potential long-term deal for Burnes, or another pitcher of his caliber, would be risky. But it would give Baltimore a much better chance to win in the short term, and prove to everyone else out there that this team is committed to building a serious contender, both now and in the future. Maybe Burnes doesn't wind up being that guy. But at a certain point, you really would like to see Elias go out of his comfort zone and pay market value for a superstar free agent. The Orioles have the money to do so, and they should seriously consider how beneficial it would be to make that kind of signing.