Projecting the Orioles 2025 rotation after Tomoyuki Sugano signing

The Baltimore Orioles just signed the best pitcher from the Japanese Central League. Tomoyuki Sugano may not be the Japanese pitcher that everyone is talking about but he certainly should not be overlooked. He brings a lot of experience and success to a young Orioles team looking to take the next step.

It was announced Monday night that the JPCL 2024 MVP was signing a one-year, $13 million deal with the Orioles. The signing is welcome news to a fanbase that has watched division rivals get better while the Birds remained quiet at the Winter Meetings. While frustration was beginning to set in, we should continue to have faith in Mike Elias and the front office to not just make big moves, but make the moves best for the team.

The Orioles starting pitching was in need of a move like this. Going into the 2024 season, the rotation was a strength of the team. Former NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes led the way, followed by Cy Young hopeful Kyle Bradish, breakout candidate Grayson Rodriguez, along with Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells. The 2025 rotation looks very different.

With Burnes electing to test the market and Bradish's 2025 availability still in question after having Tommy John surgery, the Orioles' ace spot is up for grabs. The two obvious choices are Rodriguez and Zach Eflin, who the Birds acquired mid-season. Both are deserving candidates but it should be GrayRod getting the ball on opening day.

We've all heard for years now that Rodriguez will be an ace in the majors and he started to show that potential last season before he got injured. His ERA, BB/9 and H/9 were all down and his K/9 and ERA+ were up. Entering his third season in the big leagues, Rodriguez is ready to take the next step.

The Orioles' rotation ought to be headlined by Grayson Rodriguez

Eflin gets the ball for game two and will look to continue the success he had during the second half when he posted a 2.60 ERA while going 5-2 in nine starts for the O's. He's been remarkably consistent over a nearly decade long MLB career. Most of the numbers he put up in Baltimore are on par with his career averages so there's no reason to think he cannot repeat his success.

The third starter will be Sugano. He's coming off a career year in which he posted a 1.67 ERA over 156.2 innings, including three complete games. This guy pounds the strike zone and pitches to contact which should allow him to eat up innings.

Maybe the biggest surprise in the rotation will be Cade Povich taking the #4 spot. Povich was dominant in AAA last season but got shelled in his first prolonged exposure to the big league. After being sent back down to regain his confidence, Povich returned to Baltimore and put together a strong September to help the O's playoff run. Look for Povich to continue to pitch well in spring training and become a more reliable starter.

The competition for the fifth starter will likely come down to the wire between Albert Suarez, Dean Kremer and Trevor Rogers. Suarez had a breakout season and was great for the O's when they needed him, both as a starter and out of the bullpen. Kremer has always been a guy with potential but he can't put it together for a full season. Rogers was terrible for the Orioles after coming over in a deadline deal but recent reports have been promising.

If all things are even it will likely be Kremer in the rotation to start the year. Entering his sixth major league season at age 29 it could be a make or break season for him. Suarez will be a valuable member of the bullpen that will be without Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb, and Rogers will start the year in AAA.

Signing Sugano does not prevent the Orioles from adding another pitcher. Recent reports have linked the Birds to Luis Castillo, Dylan Cease, and Corbin Burnes. It also has no effect on international money that could be offered to Roki Sasaki. I wouldn't be shocked if the Orioles weren't done.