4 bold predictions for Orioles in 2026 after whirlwind offseason changed everything

It is easy to be pessimistic when it comes to the game of baseball. Even the best hitters fail around 70% of the time, prospects fail far more often than they succeed, and pitchers' bodies are in a constant battle with the laws of physics and modern medicine. However, spring training is the time for dreaming, and the Baltimore Orioles have a lot to dream big about.

In addition to returning studs like Gunnar Henderson and Trevor Rogers, the Orioles have added Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt, Ryan Helsley, Pete Alonso, and more to what was already an exciting young roster. Before the grind of the regular season takes hold, it is time for some bold predictions ahead of the start of the season.

Here are a few truly bold predictions for the Orioles heading into the 2026 season

The goal here is to actually take a real stance and be bold in doing so. "Gunnar Henderson will be good" is not a bold prediction, nor is it instructive in any way. Obviously, not all of these things will come to fruition, but the odds are better than some may think.

Pete Alonso ends up being a finalist for AL MVP

To win MVP, you need to both perform exceedingly well AND have the media take enough notice. Thankfully, the Orioles' addition of Alonso was one of the biggest moves of the offseason and is quickly becoming one of the key faces of the entire organization.

While it is still likely that the Orioles player who will end the season with the highest WAR will probably be Henderson, Alonso is the kind of player who can put together the loud numbers that could get voters' attention. If he hits more than 35 homers in 2026, you can probably expect him to make a run at AL MVP even though unseating Aaron Judge for the top spot could be really, really tough.

Samuel Basallo will start slow, but explode for the Orioles in the second half

When Samuel Basallo was first called up, Orioles fans were thrilled that the team finally promoted the guy they had been calling for since Adley Rutschman first got hurt. However, his struggles early on were a reminder that the adjustment to the majors is anything but easy and that he is still an unfinished product.

Between those struggles and the fact that pitchers are almost always ahead of hitters early on, Orioles fans need to brace for Basallo to get off to a slow start, even if he continues to play well in spring training. However, the talent is too great to hold him down for long, and it would not be shocking at all if Basallo explodes in the second half once he has his feet under him and helps get Baltimore back to the postseason.

Trevor Rogers loses a narrow AL Cy Young race to Tarik Skubal

For as much discussion as there is about the state of the Orioles' rotation, it feels like Trevor Rogers existence keeps being forgotten. While everyone agrees that his success in 2025 wasn't a complete fluke and everything passes the eye test, there are real concerns about his previous injury history and his lack of track record under a full workload.

Call us romantics, but we are going to wager that 2026 is the year that Rogers puts the rest of the league on notice. Rogers is headed for free agency after the season and has a lot to play for as a result. Calling our shot and betting on him winning the AL Cy Young is tempting, but it feels more likely that Tarik Skubal wins again with Rogers keeping him honest. After all, Skubal is headed for free agency, too, and the guy is pretty good at the "throwing baseballs" thing.

Orioles snag a wild card spot and make it to the ALCS

Right now, the AL East looks incredibly close among the top four teams, and that doesn't include the perennial wild card that is the Rays. However, the Blue Jays do deserve some respect for what they did last year, especially when you consider how much they spent this past offseason to reload and improve. For now, they should be considered the favorites to win the division.

However, that doesn't mean all is lost for Baltimore. With the improvements the Orioles made, they absolutely should be in contention for a wild-card spot in the AL at the end of the season. If that happens, the Orioles are going to be very tough to beat in a short series with Rogers and Kyle Bradish starting, and the upside in this lineup. Getting to the Fall Classic might be a stretch, but playing for a chance at the World Series before losing a longer series feels very attainable.