Orioles taking risky gamble on this stat with Shane Baz trade, but they may be right

Starting pitcher splits are very finicky things to base one's opinions of a player on. Given the relatively small samples that starters are dealing with, all it takes is one crazy game from a lefty hitter to ruin your platoon splits or a couple of bad games on the road to make a guy look bad away from home. As a result, those sorts of differences in splits (especially when they aren't that big) need to be taken with a grain of salt. However, in trading for Shane Baz, the Baltimore Orioles may be placing a pretty big bet on that very type of splits.

Baz certainly isn't uninteresting as an arm as he is a former first-round pick who has a fastball in the upper 90s, but he has a history of elbow trouble, and Baz's results in the big leagues have been inconsistent at best. In 31 starts last season, he only managed a 4.87 ERA across 166.1 innings, which definitely isn't in line with the price the Orioles just paid for him.

However, a closer look at Baz's 2025 season reveals some stark home-road splits which, in this particular case, may actually be on to something.

Shane Baz's home-road splits give Orioles hope that he has even more upside than they thought

Again, if the difference between Baz's home and road numbers were like half a point in ERA and a few more/fewer home runs, there wouldn't be much to talk about here. However, Baz's road ERA was more than two full runs better than his home ERA (3.86 ERA on the road vs. 5.90 ERA), with his walk and strikeout rates being relatively similar. So what gives?

Well, the Rays were forced to play at George M. Steinbrenner Field in 2025 after their home stadium was severely damaged by Hurricane Milton, and that is both a minor league park AND a very hitter-friendly park. While Tampa did manage to have a winning record at home again last year, the Rays' 3.94 team ERA and one of the worst team home run rates point to something being fishy here.

If the Orioles are right, they could be getting quite the steal in Baz, especially if he makes improvements with his walk rate and barrel rate. However, it isn't like Camden Yards is a pitcher's paradise or anything. If Baltimore wants to get the most out of their newest starter, they may want to make real efforts to bring the quality of contact against Baz down a little bit. The Rays' temporary park may have been part of Baz's struggles, but it probably wasn't all of them.