Odds of Orioles extension for Trevor Rogers may go up after arbitration settlement

The Baltimore Orioles avoided arbitration with a number of players on Thursday, one of whom was left-handed ace Trevor Rogers. The two sides agreed on a fairly modest salary of $6.2 million, which could lead to a lengthier extension.

Rogers is coming off a phenomenal 2025 campaign with Baltimore, and if he can continue to build off that, it would not come as a huge surprise if the Orioles tried to extend him.

Trevor Rogers may be set up for a better payday after the Orioles avoid arbitration

The 28-year-old lefty is coming off a strong campaign in 2025. In 18 starts, he had a 1.81 ERA in 109 and 2/3 innings pitched. Rogers struck out 103 and walked 29 across that span and established himself as the ace of the rotation going forward, seemingly filling the hole left by Corbin Burnes after he signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks before the 2025 season.

It was an impressive turnaround for Rogers since he struggled mightily with the O's after being traded to Baltimore from the Miami Marlins in 2024. It was disastrous as he had a 7.11 ERA in four starts before he was sent down to the minor leagues.

Then, in the offseason, he dislocated his knee and missed the first few months of the season, which must have made the Orioles feel like they completely blew it in trading for him.

Yet, he was able to turn things around and deliver that great 2025 season. Now, the question is whether he can replicate that success going forward.

He really hadn't pitched that well since 2021 with the Marlins when he was an All-Star and had a 2.64 ERA across 25 starts. Outside of 2021 and 2025, he had not had a season with a sub-4.00 ERA so the next challenge will be for him to string together multiple good years.

The fact that he seems to have found a reliable pitch in his sinker suggests that he could have found a more replicable formula going forward, but if that pitch abandons him, then it could be more of the 2024 Rogers rather than the 2025 version.

If Rogers proves early in 2026 that he can carry over the success from last year, then the Orioles might be wise to start up some extension talks with him, set to be a free agent in 2027. Letting him hit the open market after two straight strong years would be a risk, and Rogers may prefer to have some stability by sticking with the same club rather than testing uncharted waters.

Plus, the fact that he is cheaper this year could help the Orioles justify to themselves that spending more on him later on is worth it if they get two solid years from him for not very much cost.

He will have to prove 2025 was not a fluke, and if he does, then he could get a nice payday in Baltimore.