3 Orioles players poised for breakout year in 2026, 2 fans should give up on

The Baltimore Orioles were a very young team on the offensive side of the ball in 2025, with the average hitter's age coming in at just 26.5 years old. While the acquisitions of Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso will add a veteran presence, they've gotten significantly younger on the mound, with greybeards like Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton being sent out, and young hot shots like Shane Baz coming in.

As a result, much of the Orioles' success will hinge on long-awaited breakouts from members of their young core. With that comes the other side of the coin — some players are sure to disappoint.

A look at the data shows three clear breakout candidates and three who will be sure to disappoint fans in 2026.

Three Orioles poised for a breakout in 2026

Dylan Beavers

Dylan Beavers made his long-awaited debut in 2025, and while it was a short sample of just 35 games, there was plenty to excite fans. Beavers leaned into his six-foot-five frame and crushed a few mammoth homers in his time in the bigs.

Fans should expect more moonshots in 2026. The Orioles' No. 2 prospect had some great angles on his balls in play, with a 37.3% launch angle sweet spot rate, and his ability to hit the ball in the air, especially to the pull side, was impressive. His 26.7% pull-air percentage was significantly higher than the league average mark of 16.7%.

The power potential is exciting, but it's the on-base skills that steal the show. The 24-year-old posted a 16.3% walk rate supported by an 86th percentile chase rate (20.2%) and 83rd percentile whiff rate (19.7%) at Triple-A Norfolk, and showed that those skills translate to the bigs with a stellar 19% walk rate to go along with an 18.9% chase rate and a 23.7% whiff rate. While a 19% walk rate isn't sustainable, expect him to draw a lot of free passes, and once he does, his 89th percentile sprint speed can cause havoc on the bases. Beavers has a lot of tools, but it's the mature approach at the plate that will allow him to put it all together quickly.

Jackson Holliday

Jackson Holliday was MLB.com's pick for top Orioles' breakout candidate in 2026, and they're probably not wrong. While it might seem like a disappointment that the former top prospect in all of baseball has yet to break out after 209 career major league games, it's important to remember that he just turned 22 at the beginning of December.

There were definitely moments that showed why Holliday has been so highly regarded, but his .242/.314/.375 line in 2025 showed how much inconsistency there was in his performance night in and night out.

What matters most here is one dramatic improvement Holliday made from 2024 to 2025. In his 60-game sample in 2024, the hopeful star chased outside of the zone relatively frequently at 27.2%. That led to a ghastly 34.1 whiff rate and an unacceptable 33.2% strikeout rate. In 2025, he improved his chase rate to just 22.3%, an 85th percentile performance. The result was fewer whiffs (24.5%) and a dramatic reduction in strikeouts (21.6%). This means the game is slowing down for him, and by not pressing to do too much, he'll unleash his otherworldly tools and ascend to superstardom as expected.

Shane Baz

This is one Baltimore needs to come through. The Orioles are betting big on Shane Baz to ascend and become the ace they desperately need. There are some reasons to believe that they might be right.

First, Baz's 4.87 ERA in 2025 was heavily influenced by the 1.41 HR/9 that he surrendered. Those long ball troubles might have had something to do with him being forced to play his home games in George M. Steinbrenner Field following the destruction and subsequent repair efforts of the roof at Tropicana Field after Hurricane Milton. Baz's temporary home was extremely long-ball friendly, and he gave up 1.97 HR/9 in his home starts versus just 0.86 HR/9 on the road.

There is another reason to be excited. Baz has two dynamic pitches that, if tinkered with, could lead to utter dominance. His fastball averages 97 miles per hour and produced a run value of 5 in 2025. He pairs that with a wicked knuckle curve that earned a FanGraph's Stuff+ rating of 125. FanGraphs separates out knuckle curves from other types of curveballs, but that mark is second only to Framber Valdez's 128 rating when it comes to all curveballs.

Finding the right mix and working in his cutter, slider, and change-up to keep hitters off balance will be paramount, but if he can do it, you'll see why Baltimore is so high on him.

Two Orioles sure to disappoint fans in 2026

Coby Mayo

The end of last season was enough to raise red flags about Coby Mayo, and now, barring some unforeseen move, it looks like the once-promising prospect will be withering away at Norfolk in 2026.

Mayo did himself no favors last year, while he didn't strike out as much as he did during his cup of coffee in 2024, when he put up a putrid 47.8% K-rate, his expanded run in 2025 showed that he has far too many holes in his swing for pitchers to exploit. Mayo still whiffed 30.6% of the time, and when he did make contact, he struggled to hit the ball with authority, posting a meager 36% hard hit rate.

The real nail in the coffin, though, was his struggles at Triple-A. The 24-year-old slashed just .226/.318/.452 in 45 games at Norfolk. Pete Alonso blocks him at first, and while the Orioles are apparently willing to try him out at other positions, it seems like an exercise that is doomed to fail.

Ryan Mountcastle

Like Mayo, Mountcastle has an Alonso problem. Older than much of the rest of the team at 28 years old, he has an uphill battle toward regular playing time unless Samuel Basallo falters and DH opportunities open up.

Even in that case, Mountcastle isn't a good bet. 2025 saw him tie his career-worst strikeout rate at 27.5% while his walk rate plummeted to an all-time low at 4.2%. At the heart of it all is a gross lack of plate discipline, coming in with a fifth percentile performance in chase rate (39.6%) and an eighth percentile performance in whiff rate (32%).

Typically speaking, hitters develop better pitch recognition and strike zone awareness as they age, but the opposite is happening with Mountcastle. If you're one of the few fans who haven't written him off already, then now is the time to come to grips with reality.