Why this Orioles bullpen option is poised for a surprise breakout in 2025

Is it a little bit cheap to say that Orioles lefty Keegan Akin is a breakout candidate coming off a year in which he pitched to a 3.32 ERA with a stellar 2.99 FIP in 78.2 innings? Maybe. But despite having a really strong season in 2024, this upcoming year could provide Akin a lot more opportunity to showcase his skillset and become a more nationally known name.

The Orioles have already come out and said that Félix Bautista is going to have some restrictions in 2025. He won't pitch on back to back days, at least in the first half, and he won't be tasked with throwing more than an inning at a time. Those restrictions will open up some opportunities for other guys in the Orioles bullpen, and chief among them should be Akin.

While Seranthony Dominguez functioned as the Orioles closer down the stretch in 2024, there are major question marks about his viability moving forward. He had some back luck last year and has not looked good in limited spring training innings either. And with the newly acquired Andrew Kittredge set to open the year on the IL, those high-leverage innings could absolutely go to Akin.

Orioles lefty Keegan Akin is primed for a major breakout in 2025

If nothing else, Akin deserves the chance to throw late in games. His four-seam/slider/changeup mix was particularly effective last year, as he posted a 99th percentile expected ERA and a 97th percentile expected batting average, per Statcast. He has well above average strikeout and whiff rates and everything about his performance in 2024 suggests those results should carry over into 2025.

What's stopping the Orioles from deploying Akin in a closing role? Part of it is that he throws left-handed, and part of it seems to be they're deferring to the veteran in Dominguez, who has saved games previously. Brandon Hyde also seemed to give preference to lefties Cionel Perez and Gregory Soto in 2024, despite Akin pitching better than ether.

If the Orioles want to run the best possible bullpen in 2025, that should include Akin getting the bulk of the high-leverage work from the left side. Danny Coulombe is no longer in town and based on performance, that role should go to Akin. If he's able to pitch as well as he did last year, we should expect to see Akin nabbing some saves and becoming one of the most trustworthy arms in the Orioles bullpen moving forward.