What has to go right for Orioles to sneak into the 2026 playoffs

With six games to go in the Baltimore Orioles' season, they have to get everything to go their way if they want to sneak through the backdoor and into the playoffs. Sweeping the Mets helped any chance they had, but getting swept by Milwaukee undid a lot of that work. Before play on Monday, the O's elimination number is two and, which means that any combination of Orioles losses and White Sox (as of now) wins that is greater than two eliminates them. Fangraph's gives them a 0.1% chance to make the playoffs.

With that in mind, the O's need to win out; that's not an option at this point. To keep any semblance of control in the final week of the season, Baltimore will need to sweep the Blue Jays at home and then head into the Bronx and sweep the Yankees.

Sweeping the Jays would be huge, too. Toronto is currently in front of them in the Wild Card standings, so that would help to knock out one opponent. They might get the Yankees at the right time too, because they could be officially eliminated from the division lead before the two sides meet. They also currently have a 4.5-game lead over the Red Sox; they could use the last weekend to rest their players.

Orioles need help from a lot of team's to make the it into the postseason

Of course, they are going to need things to happen elsewhere, too, if they want a shot. Birdland should be rooting for the Royals and Rockies in the final week as both take on the White Sox. If the White Sox win two more games, the O's can't make it. They will need both teams to step up in the final week and prevent that. The O's do have the tiebreaker over the White Sox, winning the season series 4-2.

Fans also need to root for the Mariners and A's, as both take on the Astros in the final week. The best-case scenario for the O's is that the Astros lose at least four games. The O's are currently two games behind the Stros, so to overtake them, they need to win three more games than Houston does. The Blue Jays also stand in their way. Luckily, the O's have this one chance to control their destiny by playing them, and then the Jays get Cincinnati at home.

This final week of the season starts with what the Orioles can control: the games they play. They need to sweep both series; that will give them a one-game cushion if the White Sox win a game. They then need to pray that the team in front of them loses out.

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