Orioles 2026 playoff odds after successfully sweeping the hapless Mets

The month of September has been a roller coaster for the Baltimore Orioles and Birdland. They entered the month on a real high. They ended August winning eight of their last ten games, got back to .500 for the first time since early April, and were just 1/2 game out of the final AL Wild Card spot. They had a 25.4% chance to make the playoffs per Fangraphs.

Then they started April with six straight losses. First, the Rockies took the final two against them, and then the Red Sox swept a four-game set. Baltimore fell to four games back of the final wildcard spot, and Fangraphs gave them a 2.8% chance at the postseason. When everything looked lost, they grabbed two of three against the Guardians and were only three games back.

The O's then had a very important series against the Blue Jays, whom they had fallen behind in their rough stretch, and lost two of three. They had fallen back to four games behind the Guardians again and had just a 1.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Baltimore didn't give up, but there's still a lot of work to do

The Orioles have bounced back once again, though. They swept the Mets in Queens and now find themselves 2.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot (now the White Sox), and Fangraphs is giving them a 5.8% chance to make the postseason.

Baltimore has three extremely important series remaining. They start with a rough one, but one they must win against the best team in baseball, the Brewers, at home. Winning two of three or a sweep is the only way they will have a chance at October. Then it's the most important of the three, another chance against the Blue Jays, who sit one game ahead of them in the standings. They close out the season with another rough challenge, three games in the Bronx.

Unfortunately, the postseason isn't fully in Baltimore's hands. They'll need teams ahead of them to lose, and the schedule doesn't favor them. The O's have the hardest strength of schedule remaining in MLB (as of the end of play on September 16), while the teams in front of them have much easier paths. The White Sox have the 28th hardest, the Rangers have the 22nd hardest, and the Blue Jays have the 20th hardest.

This won't just be an uphill climb, Baltimore has to climb straight up a cliff if they want to make the postseason, but it is doable. They just need to make sure that they are firing on all cylinders during this final stretch to do it.

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