Orioles' playoff odds plummeting after Colton Cowser catch is extremely depressing

It was less than two weeks ago that Colton Cowser flipped a walk-off home run for the Colorado Rockies into the Baltimore Orioles' eighth win in ten games. It was August 31st, and the win brought the Orioles back to .500 at 69-69.

Baltimore entered the month of September a half-game out of the final wild card spot with a 25.4% chance to make the playoffs per FanGraphs. They then lost the next two games to the Rockies, and their playoff odds took a steep drop by 11%. After losing two of three to the Rockies, they went home and promptly got swept in a four-game set by the Red Sox, dropping the O's playoff odds to under 3%.

Baltimore's true final chance was in the next series against the Guardians, the team they are chasing for the final playoff spot. They won game one, boosting their playoff odds to 5.2%, but a game two loss dropped their odds to 1.9%. A win in the finale brought it back up to 4.4%, but still far from where it was. Unfortunately, their six-game losing streak dropped them to four games out of the final Wild Card spot, and they fell behind the Rangers and Blue Jays in the process.

Orioles fans must be feeling emotional whiplash after the sharp turn the season took

The hot stretch to end August had Birdland feeling great. It felt like the entire team was firing on all cylinders: Pete Alonso got red hot, key moments were being spread throughout the lineup, the bullpen was dominant, and the starters were putting in quality outings. Then it all fell apart.

While the Orioles pulling themselves into contention was unexpected after selling at the trade deadline, fans always knew they had a talented roster. It felt like everything was clicking at the right time, and they could make that final push to make it to October. The falloff has only hurt.

The team gave Birdland hope that the funk they had been in the last season and a half was over, and they were ready to make it back to the playoffs. Instead, they returned to what they had shown for most of this season, and it makes for a very depressing outlook on the future.

After back-to-back seasons of making the playoffs in 2023 and '24 (albeit with diminishing postseason success), it felt like Baltimore's rebuild had paid off. Then they missed the playoffs last season, and now the O's have had a sharp falloff this season, and it would take a miracle for them to make the postseason this year. They already traded away one of their cornerstone players, Adley Rutschman, and trade rumors have been swirling around Gunnar Henderson.

In the last two weeks, the emotions in Baltimore have gone from "last year was just a down year, but we are right back in it," to "are we really headed for another rebuild?" It's hard not to feel despondent about the future of the Orioles after this stretch.

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