Pete Alonso’s wild surge (and unexpected improvement) is validating Orioles contract

When the Baltimore Orioles signed Pete Alonso over the offseason, it was a shock to everyone. Firstly, Baltimore hadn't been a team that was heavily connected to Alonso, but then the contract number was much larger than most had anticipated.

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel and MLB Trade Rumors each predicted a four-year, $110 million contract for Alonso heading into the offseason. Bleacher Report was the closest at fives years and $145 million. The reality was, the longtime Mets first baseman landed a five-year, $155 million contract with Baltimore, and it was was heavily scrutinized.

But that should be the case anymore. Alonso is already exceeding expectations with his 2026 performance. He's needed very little time to get comfortable.

The 31-year-old already has 32 home runs before the end of August. He's on pace to play all 162 games this season and finish with 38 home runs and 109 RBI. His .276 batting average would set a career high, as would his .365 on-base percentage. He also has a positive Outs Above Average (+2) mark for the first time since 2021.

Pete Alonso's contract isn't looking like a burden for the Orioles

The Orioles find themselves still in the playoff race. Before play on August 27, they are 2.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot held by the Guardians, with only Texas in between themselves and Cleveland. Even though Baltimore sold at the trade deadline, it hasn't stopped them from surging over the last month.

The Polar Bear has a lot to do with that. Since the trade deadline, the slugger has a .400 batting average and 1.204 OPS. Without him, the Orioles would be nowhere near the playoffs.

A lot of the scrutiny around Alonso's contract, and the reason analysts predicted smaller deals, focus on his declining defense. After being +4 outs above average in 2021, he instantly fell off to -7 in 2022. He balanced out at 0 in 2023 before becoming one of the worst defenders at first base, posting -8 and -9 OAA in 2024 and 2025. From 2021-2025, Alonso's -22 OAA was second-worst in all of baseball. For this year, at least, it's a weakness he's turned around. His poor defensive seasons really hurt his WAR totals (not that it's the end-all, be-all), as he didn't post an fWAR above 4.0 since his rookie year in 2019. In 2026, he already has a 4.1 mark.

It's just year one of a five-year contract, but so far it's paying off. Alonso has been more than what the Orioles thought they were getting when they convinced him to sign in Baltimore, which will have the conversations heading into 2027 a lot more pleasant than they were a few months ago.

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