What Corbin Burnes' late-night departure means for the Orioles

Just after midnight on Saturday morning, Jon Heyman of the NY Post announced that former Orioles' starter Corbin Burnes had come to terms on a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks for 6 years and $210 million. The deal reportedly includes an opt-out after the 2026 season.

The Burnes contract is surprising in two ways. First is that Burnes was able to get just 6 years, albeit at $35 million per year. Earlier in the offseason, the Yankees signed Burnes' primary counterpart in free agency, Max Fried, to an 8 year deal worth $218 million. That Fried was able to beat Burnes in both years and total dollars is unexpected, especially given that Fried is almost a full year older than Burnes.

It's also surprising to see Arizona continuing to go all in with large free agent contracts like this considering the questions surrounding the future of their local TV revenue stream. Arizona was one of the teams who got stiffed in the Bally's / Diamond Sports Group fiasco and in 2024, their games were broadcast by MLB for a drastically reduced price.

Back in 2020, the Diamondbacks were reportedly earning just shy of $60 million per year in local TV money. The estimates for their 2024 local TV revenue are between $5-$10 million, which is a huge difference. They're in the middle of the pack in terms of home park attendance, coming in at 18th in the league with just over 2.3 million in announced attendance in 2024, per ESPN. So they're still in a good spot in terms of getting fans to attend games. But despite those alarming revenue trends, the Diamondbacks are set to surpass $200 million in terms of CBT payroll for the second consecutive year as they try to catch the Dodgers in the NL West.

So what does that mean for the Orioles, if even the teams who are facing genuine problems with their revenue streams are willing to go outbid the market for top free agents?

How will the Orioles respond to the departure of Corbin Burnes?

Well, on one hand Arizona might have always made a ton of sense for Burnes. He and his family have a home there and seeing as Burnes' wife recently gave birth to a pair of twin girls, it makes sense that Burnes would want to take that into account when choosing a destination. Arizona is also a favorable destination for players thanks to the state's income tax laws. Bob Nightengale even reported that Burnes turned down larger deals from Toronto and San Francisco for the deal in Arizona, where he'll be able to take home more of that income.

But the question remains - are the Orioles, under Mike Elias, ever going to compete for players at the top of the free agent market? There are valid reasons why Elias, or anyone, would be skeptical of dishing out a massive contract like this, especially for a pitcher. But when you have one of the strongest young cores in the sport and neglect to supplement that core with top tier talent based on an extreme level of risk aversion, then fans and media members are rightly going to start questioning the methodology.

It's still possible that the Orioles surprise us and trade for an ace later this winter. After all, they didn't acquire Burnes until February 2024, just prior to the start of spring training. They could do so again this year, potentially targeting someone like Dylan Cease, or Framber Valdez. But even then, those two guys in particular are on expiring contracts, and we'll be having this same conversation a year from now about whether the Orioles want to dish out top dollar to retain an ace.

Burnes' departure doesn't signal disaster for the Orioles. They're still in a strong spot heading into 2025. But they'd be a lot better on the field with Burnes, or someone like him who can headline a rotation. Everyone is allowed to have reservations about top free agents. After all, we saw how poorly the Chris Davis contract wound up being. But if Elias and his team are never willing to take on the risk involved in signing top players, the Orioles will struggle to be competitive enough to win championships.

The best teams in the sport spend money. Right now, the Orioles are projected to once again be bottom half in payroll. They don't need to be number one, but they almost certainly will need to adjust their risk tolerance if they're serious about winning.