Unique offseason wrinkle could play right into Orioles’ hands with some lucky breaks

The Baltimore Orioles conundrum is one that is never-ending. The club needs starting pitching. Good starting pitching. If they're to have any hope of fending off their AL East rivals, they can't settle for half measures.

That is something that has come at an ever-increasing cost, as the scarcity of true front-line starters has led to an explosion in the marketplace most normal offseasons. That has always given Mike Elias pause. The front office leader hasn't had an issue ponying up big money, offering a whopping $45 million AAV to Corbin Burnes last winter, but the years required to get a deal done have always been a sticking point.

Elias has assured fans that the obstacles of the past will no longer stand in the way, but can you really trust him? Fortunately, a strange wrinkle in this winter's proceedings might save us from ever having to find out.

The current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between the owners and the players expires next December, and with that comes a lot of labor uncertainty that will make waves in this year's market.

Looming labor uncertainty could be a lucky break in the Orioles' pursuit of an ace

There's a lot to know about the CBA negotiations, with the current agreement expiring on December 1, 2026. The biggest thing that could work in Baltimore's favor is the uncertainty of what the future holds.

First and foremost, there's a real chance that a deal doesn't get done in time, leading to a lockout. A prolonged work stoppage would be a disastrous situation for the league, but with that in the back of executives' minds, they'll be wary of handing out big-money, long-term deals to older free agents who are at the tail ends of their primes.

For example, any club considering 32-year-old Framber Valdez would have to contend with the fact that they could lose out on a huge chunk of his age-33 season, meaning it might only get one more year of vintage performance before he hits the decline phase.

The second big unknown is what kinds of payrolls will be feasible under whatever new CBA the two sides can concoct. Clubs like the New York Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers have flaunted their economic might to the point of absurdity, handing out record-setting deals like candy and deferring money until the end of time.

That's led to revitalized talks of a salary cap, or at least a revamped luxury tax system. A middle ground could be something along the lines of the NBA's system, where there are multiple thresholds but a hard cap once the last one is surpassed. We could also see the end of deferred money, or at least severe restrictions regarding how it can be utilized.

All of this could make teams very hesitant to tie themselves up long-term with so much unclear about how the rules will work in the future. That could shift all but the truly elite to settle for shorter-term, higher AAV deals, and that's Mike Elias's wheelhouse. Now he just has to capitalize on the foggy future and reel in the big fish that his rotation desperately needs.