Mike Elias fuels Orioles offseason hope fans probably shouldn't trust

Despite selling at the trade deadline, the Baltimore Orioles believe that they can rise to the rank of contenders again in 2026. That's, of course, easier said than done, and if Baltimore is seriously thinking that they're going to make a play in a crowded American League East field, they're going to have to seriously address the starting rotation.

According to Mike Elias, they're going to do just that. Probably. Maybe. The head decision maker said that the club doesn't want to take adding a big arm off the table and that while injury concerns are something to be aware of, the pitchers who can make an impact are “always going to command long deals, and that’s the price of poker.”

All well and good, but will Elias actually follow through, or is this simply lip service?

Mike Elias hints that the Orioles are willing to spend big for impact pitchers, but we've heard this story before

Elias's comments are very similar to those he made last offseason, when his big starting pitching additions were... Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano. Those two didn't quite match up with his promise, and while he did make a play to retain Corbin Burnes, he was unwilling to go as long-term as necessary to get a deal done.

While Burnes ultimately tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery, that was impossible to know at the time. Instead, the lesson is that top-end starters in their prime aren't going to settle for four-year deals when other clubs are handing out ones that are in the neighborhood of six to eight years.

Elias can't be believed until he goes out and actually spends big on an ace. Framber Valdez, for example, would certainly look good in an Orioles uniform, but given his track record, Valdez is likely looking at the eight-year, $218 million contract the New York Yankees gave Max Fried last offseason as his aspirational ideal. Is Elias really willing to come close to that?

Of course, the other option would be the trade market; however, any cost-controlled starter with top-end stuff is going to cost an arm and a leg, and Elias just said that he's taking perhaps Baltimore's most tantalizing trade chip off the table.

There's also Grayson Rodriguez's impending return, which could convince Elias that instead of a top-of-the-rotation starter, a back-end one will do. That, of course, would be misguided. A true contender in Baltimore would have to pair Rodriguez with an established ace to navigate the divisional gauntlet it will face.

Time will tell if Elias will live up to his promise. Until then, take his comments with a large grain of salt.

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