Trevor Rogers' bounce back is forcing the Orioles to answer a difficult question

When Trevor Rogers' season got off to a rough start, many people began to question if his brilliant 2025 season had been a flash in the pan or a luck-fueled mirage. From April 14th to May 29th, Rogers made seven starts, putting up a 10.01 ERA and 6.32 FIP, and the Orioles lost every single one of those games. Rogers looked absolutely miserable on the mound; his walks were way up, he couldn't finish off batters once he got to two strikes, and he couldn't finish innings once he got to two outs.

Before the struggles set in, Rogers was the Orioles staff ace and someone that many fans were hoping to see extended before he could hit free agency at the end of this season. Once his slump set in, people began to question if the Orioles should even offer him a contract or just let him walk in free agency.

Since the calendar flipped over to June, Rogers has locked back in. he's made seven starts in that span with an ERA of 1.51. He's looked much more like the 2025 version of Trevor Rogers that got Cy Young votes despite only pitching 119 innings. The two-strike and two-out woes are seemingly behind him, and his ground ball rate has stabilized.

Trevor Rogers has locked in just in time to give the Orioles front office a tough trade deadline decision

Rogers turning his season around right as the Orioles have fallen out of contention for the playoffs presents the Orioles front office with a difficult decision. Should they trade him at the deadline while his value is relatively high and try to get back a prospect haul that could help jump-start their effort to reshape this team in the offseason? Or should they hold onto Rogers and attempt to resign him this offseason and make him an important part of the Orioles rotation going forward?

Both sides have some merit. The argument for trading Rogers would be that the Orioles need to improve their farm system so that they have enough trade chips to upgrade their roster in the offseason, and as it stands right now, they don't have a lot they can move at this deadline that would net a significant haul. If a team is willing to put legit prospects on the table for Rogers, it's worth considering.

The argument for keeping Rogers is that if the Orioles trade him away, they'll have to expend resources replacing his production in the offseason. The Orioles have always struggled to find starting pitching. With Rogers, they have a guy who has pitched well for them and has said that he likes pitching for the Baltimore Orioles. That's a legitimately rare combination, and trading away a player like that could be a mistake.

What this will come down to is how good of a chance the Orioles think they have of retaining Rogers. The worst-case scenario is that they forgo getting a decent prospect haul at the deadline and then, in the offseason, another team swoops in and pays him more than what the Orioles are willing to offer, and then get nothing except maybe an extra draft pick if the Orioles offer him the QO.

Obviously, Rogers still has half a season to prove himself, and there is no way to know what other teams are going to be willing to do in the offseason, but the Orioles can try to get a good sense of what Rogers is expecting in free agency, and if that figure sounds appetizing to them, they should hold onto him. If it sounds like he might be floating out of their price range, then moving him at the deadline is easily the best option.

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