Trevor Rogers' 2026 meltdown encapsulated in most insane Orioles stat you'll ever see

The Baltimore Orioles are 0-5 in Trevor Rogers last five starts. It hasn't been bad luck either; he's earned those five losses. Over that span, Rogers has averaged less than four innings per start with an 11.84 ERA. He's given up five home runs, which is almost as many as he gave up all last season. What's been confusing is that, by and large, Rogers looks about the same. His fastball velo has held up, stuff+ actually likes some of his pitches even more this year than they did last year. The process looks very similar, but the results couldn't be more different.

What encapsulates these struggles are his stats with two strikes. During this rough stretch, Rogers has often succeeded in getting into pitcher-friendly counts, but when he's gone to put guys away as he did last year, he hasn't been able to. The Baltimore Sun's Jacob Calvin Meyer tweeted out the stats after Rogers' most recent painful start.

Trevor Rogers is getting beat up in pitchers counts on pitchers pitches

Most hitters crumble when they get to two strikes, but when Rogers gets a hitter to two strikes, they become a slightly worse hitter than Shohei Ohtani. That's a huge problem, and it's making Rogers look like a much worse pitcher than he is.

So the question becomes, what is going on here? After his most recent start, Rogers was asked if he thought he might be tipping pitches. That is something that could make sense. Rogers went from a highly effective ace pitcher to the worst pitcher in the league, basically overnight, without a noticeable drop in pitch quality or an injury. It's not crazy to think that the reason for the sudden change is that somewhere along the line, hitters picked up on a tell and now they know what is coming.

Knowing what pitch is coming doesn't make hitting easy, but it does make it easier. Once a batter gets to two strikes and shifts to just wanting to make contact, if he knows what pitch is being thrown, that makes his job a lot easier.

It's also possible that Rogers has simply become too predictable. Last year, Rogers was a surprise. He came out of nowhere with improved velocity and a new approach. If hitters prepared to face 2025 Rogers based on the previous scouting report, they weren't going to be ready for him. With an offseason to look at what he did in 2025 and adjust to it, it's possible that hitting coaches picked up on some tendencies. So now, when Rogers tries to finish off a 2-strike count with a sweeper, hitters are ready for it and can lay off if it's out of the zone or put the bat on it if it's in the zone.

Whether it's pitch tipping or just being too predictable, Rogers needs to mix things up in his next start. Change where he holds his hands while he grips his pitch and pitch against tendency in leveraged counts. Throw everyone off balance and see if that doesn't improve the results.

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