Orioles have to try something different with Trevor Rogers

Trevor Rogers had an incredible 2025 season. He pitched to a level that, from a run prevention standpoint, would have been considered unsustainable for the greatest pitchers of all time. So everyone knew that Rogers was due for some amount of regression; the question was how much. Most people assumed that he would settle in as a solid starter with a mid-3s ERA. Fangraphs projected him to finish with an ERA in the low fours, but that had a lot to do with what he had done the last few years before 2025. Nobody expected what's happening now.

At the start of the year, it looked like Rogers was just going to keep motoring along. Through his first three starts, his ERA was nearly identical to where it ended in 2025 at 1.89. He looked like an ace, and the Orioles won all three of those starts.

Trevor Rogers' season has taken a dramatic turn

Then things started to go off the rails. In the three-start stretch before going on the IL, Rogers averaged less than four innings per start, put up a 9.53 ERA with a 5.57 FIP. When he finally hit the IL, it felt like a relief because at least an illness could explain why Rogers had completely lost it.

Since coming back from the injury, things have only gotten worse. In his first start against the Yankees, he gave up six runs in just four innings, walking three and surrendering two home runs. In his second start against the Rays, he lasted less than four innings and gave up eight runs on eight hits and two walks. It looked really easy for the Rays hitters.

The Orioles are now 0-5 in Rogers last five starts, and his ERA is up to 6.87, even with the three really good starts to begin the season. In his last two starts, his performance has put the game out of reach before his team even has a chance to compete. What are the Orioles going to do?

First, they have to figure out what is going on. There are a few different answers to this question.

One is that his command is not as good this year as it was last year. Rogers is not the kind of pitcher who can just rip middle-middle and trust his stuff to make hitters miss. He has to be able to throw his pitches where he wants to throw them in order to be successful. This year, he's seen large drops in his location+ numbers on his sinker, slider, and changeup. Basically, if it's anything besides his four-seam fastball, he's having a hard time locating it. That's not a recipe for success.

Another thing is that Rogers is not actually pitching that differently than he did last year, and that he's just been very unlucky compared to very lucky, and the difference between the two is shocking. Rogers xERA last year was 3.40, and this year, going into yesterday's start, his xERA was 4.13. That's not a world of difference. Last year, even while he was having success, he was still near the bottom of the league in hard hit%, but those hard hit balls were all going straight into the ground and being fielded. This year, those balls are finding holes. In his start against the Rays, they had multiple hard-hit grounders that snuck just inside the baseline for doubles. If those balls are hit just a few degrees differently, they're easy outs. Rogers just hasn't gotten as lucky.

Rogers can't do much about his luck, but he can work on his command. He sustained really good command over 18 starts last year. It's not like he went into each of those starts and just happened to have good command all season. He was doing something to see those results. Rogers has always had good command throughout his career, and there's no reason that would just fall off a cliff in his age-28 season. There is an adjustment he can make; he just has to figure it out.

While the Orioles wait for Rogers to figure it out, they can't just let him keep throwing games in the garbage the way he's done since coming off the injured list. They either need to move him to the bullpen in a bulk innings guy role, where he can parachute into the game once it's going and if he doesn't have it, get pulled fairly quickly, or find a body part that's bothering him and put him on IL until he looks like himself again.

The Orioles put a lot of pressure on Rogers when they decided not to bring in any more top-of-the-rotation arms to support him. If the season falls apart because he's regressed, they'll only have themselves to blame.

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