Trevor Rogers is silencing Orioles' critics but Cy Young bid has two flaws

Throughout the offseason, when people talked about the Baltimore Orioles' rotation, they tended to breeze past Trevor Rogers. On every baseball show and podcast, when the conversation turned to Rogers, the common refrain was always along the lines of "he won't be sub-2-ERA good, but he'll be good". Well, now the season has begun, and Trevor Rogers is daring to ask the question: What if I am sub-2 ERA good?

Through three starts, Rogers has picked up right where he left off. He's sporting a 1.89 ERA, he's pitched at least six innings, and he's been the starting pitcher in half the Orioles' wins so far. This year, as a special treat, his FIP and xERA lineup much closer to his actual ERA than they were last year, indicating that this run he's on might be even more sustainable than anyone thought.

With how good he's pitching, the question has shifted from: can he sustain this, to what would he have to do to really get into the Cy Young conversation?

Trevor Rogers continues to do what everyones says he can't do

The issue that Rogers faces with his Cy Young candidacy is that he doesn't strike enough batters out. Last year, amid his breakout, he struck out 8.54 per nine. By comparison, Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet, who combined to get all the first and second place votes, both struck out over 11 batters per nine innings.

Strikeouts aren't everything, but when it comes to the Cy Young, it does matter. A strikeout is the only way for the pitcher to get the batter out without anyone else's help. The pitchers that strike the most batters out are typically considered the best pitchers because they take the ball out of the defense's hands more than anyone else, making them the most responsible for their own success.

So, even in a world where Rogers finished the season with a better ERA than Skubal, Crochet, or whoever else the voters might easily end up voting for, the pitcher with the worst ERA but many more strikeouts. It sounds a little unfair, but they'd be justified in doing so.

The other issue with Rogers' potential Cy Young case is the innings. Innings are a basic stat, but they matter. Pitchers who pitch more innings are more valuable, and even in this era where pitchers pitch fewer innings than ever, the Cy Young winner typically finds himself north of 180 innings. Rogers' career high in innings is 133, which he did in 2021 as a 23-year-old. For Rogers to get to the point where his volume would be considered acceptable for a Cy Young winner, he'd have to pitch at least 40, if not 50 more innings than he ever has in a single season. That's a lot to ask.

Neither of these roadblocks is insurmountable. If Rogers were to get his K/9 numbers up to about one strikeout per inning, the voters could very well be swayed in his favor as long as the other stats line up with him being a Cy Young caliber pitcher. As far as the innings go, Rogers just needs his health to hold up for the first time in his career, and he's currently healthier than he's been in years.

Rogers should still be considered a distant underdog for the Cy Young award. The fireballing strikeout artists that have been at the top of the voting the last few years are likely to remain there, but if Rogers continues to prevent runs the way he has for the past year now, he'll start to creep into the picture and put pressure on the favorites to not mess up and have a blow up outing or the leagues most presitigous award for pitching might go to a lefty throwing 92 mph fastballs.