Orioles identify what’s behind Trevor Rogers sudden regression after hot start

Baltimore Orioles starter Trevor Rogers got off to a very hot start this season, allowing just four earned runs through his first four starts. His last two outings have not been as impressive, and it largely has to do with the fact that his changeup has abandoned him this season.

Last season, the tall lefty held opponents to an impressive .202 batting average against his changeup. This season, opponents are hitting .303 off his main secondary pitch. That’s a problem, but at least the Orioles know what he needs to fix.

Rogers’ last two starts have been pretty rough. On April 14, against the Arizona Diamondbacks, he had to battle through 4 and 2/3 innings and allowed four earned runs. In his most recent start on Sunday, he gave up five earned runs in five innings. His ERA on the season is now at 4.08. 

Both Rogers and manager Craig Albernaz agreed that it is not a matter of his stuff deteriorating, but it’s more the fact that he is not locating his pitches as well as he did last season, when he had a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts.

Orioles need Trevor Rogers to be his best self in 2026

It would be unreasonable to expect Rogers to put up those kinds of numbers over the course of a full season, but the O’s absolutely need him to look more like the version of himself he displayed through his first four starts rather than his last two.

Another troubling development is his four-seam fastball. Last season, he held opponents to a .158 batting average against that pitch, while this season, opponents are hitting .289 against it. His fastball and changeup are the two pitches he uses most often, so he needs to start locating both of them better to get back on track.

The good news is he seems to be totally healthy. He was limited to just 18 starts last season due to a knee injury, and various ailments have kept him on the IL for stretches over the last few seasons.

If he can remain healthy and look mostly like the 2025 version of himself, then the Orioles will be ecstatic. They’ve already lost Zach Eflin for the season, so they really need the rest of their rotation to hang in there and remain healthy. Rogers also has an opportunity to prove he is worthy of an extension, as his contract is up after this season.

The 28-year-old has only made six starts, so it’s too early to overreact to a few bad outings. A couple of bullpen sessions to ensure he keeps his changeup down and is locating his pitches properly should get him back on track soon enough. 

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