Ranking available free agent starting pitchers for Orioles to target for 2025

As we creep closer to the MLB offseason, the Orioles need to start thinking hard about how they'll go about replacing Corbin Burnes at the top of the rotation. It's possible that Mike Elias goes out and spends big on a free agent starter. While it'll be his first foray into the top of the free agent market, realistically that's the easiest way to acquire a new ace.

The easiest thing to do would be to bring back Burnes himself. While experts agree that he'll be expensive, Burnes has been worth the price of admission throughout his career. Though the strikeouts were dialed back in 2024, Burnes was one of the most effective pitchers in terms of run prevention.

Burnes ran a 2.92 ERA this year and posted his third consecutive season with at least 190 innings pitched. There's a reason that people project that he'll earn north of $200 million this winter. He's both very good and has a history of being reliable, and that makes him one of the most desirable free agent targets of the winter. Burnes should be the Orioles number one target but in the event that he leaves, here are a handful of other options that the O's could target as his replacement.

1. Max Fried, Braves (Projected contract: 6 years, $175 million)

Fried and Burnes will likely command the two highest free agent pitcher contracts this winter, with both projected to earn roughly $200 million, or in Fried's case just shy of that mark. It might sound like a lot but it's not without reason.

For his career, Fried has a 3.07 ERA. He was very good in 2024, pitching to a 3.25 ERA with a 3.33 FIP and 166 strikeouts in 174.1 innings. While he battled injuries in 2023, he's been a fairly reliable starter otherwise. He's pitched at least 165 innings in 4 of the last 6 years and while he obviously didn't reach that mark in the shortened 2020 season, he did make every possible start that year.

Fried might not be strikeout-focused enough for the Orioles front office to take notice, but he's been one of the most consistent and reliable starters over the past several years and would be a strong addition to this Orioles' rotation.

2. Blake Snell, Giants (Projected contract: 3 years, $105 million)

Unlike the previous two guys here, Snell isn't known for his ability to stay healthy. Despite that, he's been one of the best starters on a rate basis since winning his first Cy Young award in 2018. Snell has broken the 130 inning mark just twice in his career, but in both of those seasons he won the Cy Young.

Over the past three seasons, Snell has thrown a combined 412 innings with a 2.82 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and a 32.4% strikeout rate. He's not a volume guy, but nobody is pretending that he is. And his projected contract accounts for the fact that he's not throwing 200 innings per year.

If Jim Bowden is right that Snell only gets a 3-year deal, it would be wise for the Orioles to be in on the bidding. That kind of short-term commitment for a player of Snell's caliber is a risk worth taking.

3. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (Projected contract: 2 years, $42 million)

Eovaldi is entering his age 35 season, so he won't command a long-term deal. And while he's not quite the same caliber pitcher as either Burnes, Fried, or Snell, Eovaldi is both a good pitcher and one with upside.

This year with the Rangers, Eovaldi pitched to a 3.80 ERA. That was a slight step down from his 2023 mark but he's been extremely consistent since 2020. Over the last five years, Eovaldi has pitched to a 3.75 ERA, and has been mostly available outside of a small stretch with Boston in 2022.

Since Eovaldi won't get a long-term deal, it makes sense for the Orioles to put him near the top of their list. He's someone that could come in and work alongside Zack Eflin atop the rotation and give the Orioles' pitching staff a bit more stability.

4. Michael Wacha, Royals (Projected contract: 3 years, $54 million)

Wacha has had a bit of a mid-career renaissance over the last three seasons. While he's not historically been a volume guy, he did throw 166 innings with Kansas City this year and he's pitched to a 3.30 ERA over the last three years combined.

Wacha will be 33 next year but still won't command a long-term deal, like Eovaldi. He's not quite a top-tier pitcher like the first three guys, but Wacha has been good enough of late to inspire confidence in his ability to pitch well into the near future.

If the Orioles can get Wacha on a short-term contract, he could slot alongside Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez to lengthen the Orioles' rotation. He's not the top-tier option the Orioles truly need but he'd be a strong asset to acquire.

Honorable mentions

Shane Bieber is coming off Tommy John surgery and won't be available until probably mid-season in 2025. He'll likely be a popular choice among fans but his limited workload lessens his potential impact. Walker Buehler was once considered one of the best young starters in the league but has fallen off. He's worked through injuries recently and is a major question mark moving forward. Tons of upside with these two guys but not much in the way of stability and confidence.

Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino make up the next tier down. Each has things to like, but none will slot in at the top of anyone's rotation. Manaea did his best impression of an ace for three months this year but has a full career of mid-tier performance that suggests he's not that guy moving forward.

If Gerrit Cole exercises his opt-out, he immediately enters the top-tier with Burnes and Fried. He almost certainly decides to stay with the Yankees, however.