Potential buy-low outfield candidate likely off the table for Orioles

One of the biggest needs for the Orioles this offseason is a right-handed hitting outfielder to fill the void left in the wake of Anthony Santander's departure. While it's still theoretically possible the Orioles bring Santander back, it's looking less likely the further we get into the offseason.

Outside of Santander, there aren't many great options in free agency. Teoscar Hernandez has been spoken about as a potential target but he's not a good defender and the multi-year deal he's bound to get might not look so great a couple years down the road.

One potential guy that hasn't had a ton of buzz in the trade market is White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. The 27 year old has had trouble staying on the field in recent years. He played just 100 games in 2024, and he's managed just 411 out of a possible 648 games over the past four years combined.

Despite the missed time, he'd been quite good prior to 2024 when he was healthy. In 2023, Robert went off, slashing .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers and 20 steals in nearly a full season's worth of work. A hip flexor strain limited his availability in 2024 and it clearly caused lingering issues with his ability to hit for power. He slumped to a .224/.278/.379 line and was seen as a potential candidate to be shipped off a miserable White Sox roster this winter.

Could the Orioles target Luis Robert this winter?

However, recent reporting from The Athletic makes it sound like Robert might not be moving after all. A front office source told reporters that the Sox were asking for a "meaningful piece" in any potential Robert trade, and that the Sox might not completely understand Robert's value on the trade market.

For one, Robert still has a team friendly deal. He's due $15 million in 2025, and has a pair of $20 million team options for both 2026 and 2027. If he can stay on the field, he's almost certain to be worth the price paid to acquire him. The gamble is whether you think he'll be healthy enough to play. Since he's had so many issues to this point, it was fair to think he might have been had for a discount this winter but it looks like that isn't the case.

Baseball Trade Values isn't a perfect tool, but it suggests that Robert is similar in value to an Orioles prospect in the range of someone like Chayce McDermott or Enrique Bradfield Jr. Would it make sense for the O's to offer a package of McDermott plus a lesser guy and see if the White Sox bite? It's hard to argue otherwise, given Robert still has so much upside. But Chicago would still have to be into that type of deal. At this point, it's not clear they're intending to move him.