When the Orioles acquired lefty Trevor Rogers from the Marlins at the trade deadline, the reaction from the fanbase was a bit mixed. On one hand, Rogers is a talented starter, someone who pitched like an ace in 2021 and has been held back by injury more than ability. On the other, the Orioles gave up what felt like a haul to acquire a guy who'd only surpassed 100 innings in two of his four years, and who had maxed out at 133.
Much of the commentary about the Rogers deal was about whether the Orioles could find a way to unlock his true skill set and get him to produce results similar to those we saw three years ago.
We haven't exactly seen that turnaround in Rogers' first two starts, considering that the lefty allowed 5 earned runs in his first outing with the Birds and has struck out just 5 batters in 9.1 innings since joining the Orioles.
However, that small sample doesn't rule out the possibility that Mike Elias and the O's development staff can find the right set of adjustments that help turn Rogers' career around.
Can the Orioles get Trevor Rogers back on track?
For one, Rogers made an interesting comment last week about his new organization. Rogers told reporters that he's been offered a level of feedback and performance data that he'd never been exposed to in Miami. That might say more about the Marlins than it does about the Orioles, but it's still a positive note.
It's admittedly not surprising to hear him speak of the Marlins like this. After all, they've been a moribund franchise for as long as most of us can remember, making the postseason just twice in the last 20 years. There are absolutely behind-the-scenes factors that have limited their on-field performance, and an inability to convey vital information to their players, specifically on the pitching staff, wouldn't be a surprise.
What does that mean for Rogers, and the Orioles more generally? Well, it feels encouraging to note how interested Rogers is in this new glut of information. The lefty seems to be taking the influx of data as a good thing, which signifies his willingness to buy into the system and be open to making changes to improve his performance.
It's notable that when he was at his most successful, Rogers was primarily a four-seam guy, throwing his fastball nearly 60% of the time. He also relied heavily on his changeup, and used the slider sparingly.
In the years since, his fastball usage has dropped significantly, he's relied much more heavily on his sinker, and he's throwing about 40% more sliders. Unfortunately, the current pitch mix isn't working. Part of that could be a velocity problem - his four-seamer is down roughly 2.5 mph compared to his peak, making it a less effective pitch.
It's unclear whether the Orioles can get Rogers' velocity back up, or if they even view that as a primary focus point. Regardless, Rogers needs a new approach. For now, it seems like he's open to making changes, but we'll have to wait and see how impactful they end up being.