Grading the Orioles' Trevor Rogers trade with Marlins

The Orioles had a very busy trade deadline, with multiple moves being made to reinforce a thin pitching staff. One of these moves was for Trevor Rogers, a 26 year old starting pitcher from the Miami Marlins. Here's a grade for the Orioles and Marlins return in this deal.

Marlins: A

It's fair to say the Marlins did very well in this trade, acquiring Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers from the O's. The Marlins held a fire sale at the deadline, with the goal of stockpiling cheap, young talent for the foreseeable future. They did just that with Norby and Stowers.

Norby was a highly regarded prospect in the Orioles system, and he slots in as the fifth best prospect for the Marlins according to MLB Pipeline. Norby has hit extremely well in the minors, with 16 home runs and an OPS over .900 in Triple-A this season. He had two separate stints with the O's in 2024, playing in just 9 games.

Stowers is yet another talented, young player who just recently graduated from prospect status.
He has been fantastic in the minors, featuring a career .877 OPS with 91 home runs and steady outfield defense.

Similarly to Norby, Stowers was a victim of the Orioles' stacked position player depth at the major league level. He was never able to carve out a consistent role with the club, but that should change after being acquired by the Marlins.

The Marlins were able to acquire two MLB-ready players who have crushed the ball at the highest minor league levels for a starter who has struggled with injuries and poor play over the past few seasons. If that isn't deserving of an A, I'm not sure what is.

Orioles: C

Many fans were outraged by this trade after it was made, and I can't say they are completely wrong for feeling that way. Let's start with the bad. Trevor Rogers hasn't been particularly good this season, or in any season since 2021. In 2024, Rogers has an ERA of 4.53, a career-low strikeout rate, and the lowest fastball velocity of his career as well.

The surface level numbers are very average, and the advanced stats are actually worse. Rogers is in the 30th percentile or lower in basically any stat you can think of. With all of this being said, there are still some aspects of this trade that prevent the Orioles from getting a grade lower than a C.

For starters, Rogers is still young and under team control for a few more seasons. Rogers is just 26 and he is under contract through 2026. The Orioles needed to add another starter who could contribute in the present and the future, and Rogers definitely checks those boxes. The lefty also had a very good season in 2021, so maybe the O's feel they can reclaim that magic from just three seasons ago.

Finally, the O's parted ways with two players who most likely weren't a part of their future plans. The outfield is too full for Stowers to get consistent at bats, and Norby was never going to replace Jackson Holliday as the long term solution at second base. It was a lot to give up, but they are much more valuable to the Marlins than the O's.