Corbin Burnes gets surprisingly low contract prediction from MLB analysts

From a 10,000 foot perspective, Orioles' ace Corbin Burnes has been exceptional in his final year before entering free agency. In total, he's pitched to a 2.92 ERA in 194.1 innings, racking up 181 strikeouts and 3.7 fWAR.

The month of August dragged down those totals, as Burnes posted arguably the worst month of his entire career. However, outside of that brutal four start stretch, Burnes has been as good as advertised and is an important part of why the Birds have been able to hang onto a Wild Card spot despite a plethora of injuries to the pitching staff.

Despite his overwhelming success, both in 2024 and the three preceding years, some analysts believe that Burnes will struggle to capture a massive contract in the offseason. Spotrac recently released some of their 2025 free agency valuations and projected that Burnes will get a deal in the neighborhood of 7 years and $215 million.

Will the Orioles be willing to pay up for Corbin Burnes' services in 2025 and beyond?

Contracts for starting pitchers are extremely tough to predict with the way MLB teams have handled the position over the last several years. However, that breakdown for Burnes would have him earning roughly $30 million per year.

His peers, including guys like Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Gerrit Cole are all earning more than $35 million, with some of them pushing past the $40 million threshold. If Burnes is looking to maximize his annual earnings, he might have to take a shorter deal to bump the AAV into that top tier.

However, if he's more concerned about the top line number and is willing to sacrifice a bit of AAV to get there, he might be able to get past $250 million. There were some analysts concerned about Burnes' future performance, but much of those comments were coming after the All Star break when Burnes was struggling the most.

One thing he has going for him is his age. Burnes will be entering his age 30 season in 2025, so in theory there shouldn't be any hesitation from teams about getting him a deal in the 7-8 year range. It's possible that Burnes will be looking for more than that but if he wants to maximize his earnings, he'll have to sacrifice some years at the end of the deal.

An appropriate comparison for Burnes might be Aaron Nola, who re-signed with the Phillies this past offseason for 7 years and $172 million. Nola had a bit longer stretch of success than Burnes does entering free agency but Nola was also a year older when he signed, and was coming off a worse walk year. Nola pitched to a 4.46 ERA in 2023 but has been lights out for Philly in 2024, mitigating any concerns about his deal.

Whether the Orioles will be willing to shell out big bucks for Burnes remains to be seen. The acquisition of Zach Eflin has worked out well for Mike Elias and company, but Burnes has a higher ceiling than either Eflin or Grayson Rodriguez does. Having the trio in Baltimore to start the 2025 season would make Orioles fans happy, but we'll have to wait and see what the price is for Burnes before etching those plans in stone for next spring.