3 Orioles non-tender candidates based on MLB Trade Rumors projections

Last week, MLB Trade Rumors released their 2025 salary arbitration estimates. Heading into the offseason, the Orioles have 15 players on the 40-man who will be eligible for arbitration next year, which is the most in the majors.

They're going to have their hands full trying to figure out which guys are worthy of a roster spot in 2025, and who's going to get cut loose. Here are a few of the players who could wind up on the chopping block.

Journeyman Matt Bowman didn't do enough to salvage a roster spot for 2025

Matt Bowman was good in limited time with the Orioles this year, pitching to a 3.45 ERA in 15.2 innings. Batters hit just .250 off him and he posted the second best strikeout rate of his career while in Baltimore, but there are certain aspects of his performance that call his future performance into question.

For one, even with the improved strikeout rate, Bowman is still below league average in the category. He has also consistently run walk rates in the 10% range, meaning he relies heavily on letting batters put the ball in play and trusting the defense behind him to convert those balls into outs.

That can work for some guys but it's just tough to sustain a high level of success that way in this day and age. Bowman was left off the postseason roster this year, largely because he doesn't strike guys out. Though he'll be cheap, as MLBTR projects him for just $1.3 million, it seems likely that the Orioles will opt to let Bowman test free agency and find an alternative way to replace his production.

The Orioles can replicate Gregory Soto's production for significantly less money

All told, Gregory Soto's time in Baltimore wasn't as bad as it looks on paper. In total, he pitched to a 5.09 ERA after the trade deadline, though that was backed by a much more attractive 3.79 FIP. Outside of a couple blow ups early on, he was one of the few capable arms in the O's bullpen down the stretch.

There are certainly interesting aspects here, even if Soto has never put together a truly impressive season. He does have the stuff to get whiffs, though that hasn't always shown in his results. His 26.6% K-rate this year was slightly above his career average, but the 8.9% walk rate was a big step in the right direction.

Unfortunately, that walk rate has consistently held Soto back. A career 12% walk rate just isn't good enough. If you allow that many guys to get on base, you're going to give up runs. The career 4.27 ERA is evidence of that.

Soto is on pace to reach free agency after the 2025 season. MLBTR estimates that he'll get $5.6 million next year, a touch above the $5.0 million he made in 2024. Ultimately, that's just too much money for a mid-tier reliever. The Orioles can find a cheaper way to replace that production in the first half, and can always acquire an arm at the trade deadline if they find themselves in need of one.

The Trevor Rogers trade may go down as one of the worst in Mike Elias' tenure

The Orioles gave up a lot to acquire Trevor Rogers at the deadline and the move came back to bite them. Rogers was terrible with the O's, pitching to a 7.11 ERA in four starts before getting demoted to Triple-A Norfolk.

Entering next year, we'll be four years removed from Rogers' one good season, which in and of itself was only 133 innings. All told, Rogers has a 4.36 ERA in 410.1 career innings. His velocity is down roughly 3 mph compared to when he was at his most successful, and he seemingly doesn't have a way to get outs while pitching in the low 90's.

Rogers posted the worst strikeout rate of his career in 2024, and narrowly missed posting his worst walk rate as well. He'll be entering his age 27 season so you'd like to think that there's something hiding under the hood waiting to be unlocked, but after what we just witnessed it's tough to imagine a solution that works.

MLBTR is projecting that he'll get $2.8 million. That's just too much for a guy who's been a potential DFA candidate for three straight years. If the Orioles can find a way to bring him back on a minor league deal, sure, throw the dart. But this team can't afford to waste time trying to bring Rogers back from the dead. Acknowledge that the trade was a miss and move on.