Orioles will regret passing on this reliever in order to sign Ryan Helsley

The Baltimore Orioles will tell you they made the responsible choice. They avoided the extra year, chased upside, and landed Ryan Helsley on a shorter, cleaner deal. On paper, a two-year, $28 million bet on a bounce-back closer is exactly the sort of move a smart, budget-conscious contender makes.

But if we’re being honest? There’s a very real chance they picked the riskier reliever at almost the same price.

Orioles’ bet on Ryan Helsley could age badly next to Robert Suárez deal

While Baltimore was working out that two-year pact with Helsley, Robert Suárez recently inked a three-year, $45 million deal with the Braves. That’s $15 million per year for Suárez versus $14 million for Helsley — same financial neighborhood, just with Suárez getting the extra year and extra $17 million overall. From a distance, it looks like the Orioles simply chose flexibility over commitment.

The problem is that flexibility only feels good if the performance is reasonably close. And Suárez’s most recent body of work suggests that might not be the case.

Since 2022, Suárez has done nothing but shove in high-leverage spots. He piled up 77 saves with the Padres over that span, including a 2025 season where he racked up 40 saves with a 2.97 ERA and 75 strikeouts in 69⅔ innings. That’s not “he can close if he has to.” That’s “give him the ninth and don’t think about it again.” Even heading into his age-35 season, the stuff hasn’t fallen off a cliff, the command hasn’t abandoned him, and the meltdown stretches have been rare.

Helsley, on the other hand, is more of a roller coaster. At his peak, he’s been flat-out dominant — 49 saves and a 2.04 ERA in 2024 is nothing to sneeze at. But after his mid-2025 trade to the Mets, the wheels got a little wobbly. Used more in a setup role, he struggled, reportedly fought pitch-tipping issues, and never quite looked like the same guy. Maybe that’s fixable. Maybe a full spring in Sarasota, a defined role, and a stable environment get him right back to All-Star form.

From a “safe” standpoint, though? It’s hard to argue Suárez isn’t the steadier play. The Orioles are squarely in a contention window. There’s a real case that locking in three years of a proven, quietly elite late-inning arm — even into his mid-30s — is exactly the kind of bet you should make when you’re trying to stack division titles and deep October runs. Instead, they’re betting on variance.

Of course, there’s an easy way for this not to matter. If Helsley looks like 2024 Helsley again, this whole conversation flips. Two years at $28 million for that version of him would look like highway robbery, and nobody in Baltimore will care what Suárez is doing in Atlanta. But sitting here today, if you’re just playing it safe? Suárez sure looks like the reliever the Orioles will wish they’d chosen.