Orioles should push hard to keep Trevor Rogers, but they must fix his most important pitch

When the Baltimore Orioles acquired Trevor Rogers at the 2024 trade deadline, it didn't go well. In the midst of the playoff race, the pitcher they added for rotation depth went off the rails and was optioned to Triple-A less than a month later. It didn't get much better to start the next season either. Rogers started the season on the IL, and once he was healthy, went back to the minors. Rogers was eventually recalled, and that's when everything got much better.

Rogers made one start in late May, a six-inning shutout, was optioned back again to the minors for three weeks, and became one of the best pitchers in baseball once he came back. The lefty made 18 starts in 2025 and had a 1.81 ERA in 109 2/3 innings. His 5.3 bWAR was the 8th best among pitchers last season. His success came heavily from his elite changeup.

In 2025, Rogers had a fastball-changeup combo that was exceptional. His fastball was his best pitch by Run Value at 16, while his changeup had a Run Value of seven. By Run Value, his changeup was one of the ten best changes among qualified pitches in all of baseball last season.

Trevor Rogers' drop-off feels almost directly tied to his changeup

Rogers came into 2026 as a favorite for the Cy Young, but it hasn't gone the way he hoped. For the entire season, Rogers has a 4.07 ERA in 29 starts. Part of the reason the lefty has struggled so much this season has been the complete 180 his changeup has done. Rogers ' changeup has become the worst-qualified changeup in baseball this season, with a -11 Run Value. He went from the 94th percentile offspeed value in 2025 to the 1st percentile in 2026.

The soon-to-be 29-year-old is a free agent at the end of the season. Baltimore needs to decide whether they want to make an effort to get him back this offseason. After giving long-term extensions to Shane Baz and Kyle Bradish this year, and with the emergence of Brandon Young, the starting rotation is already getting full, but Rogers has been the best of the group for the last two seasons.

One thing the Orioles need to figure out is whether they can fix his changeup. Without that pitch being effective, Rogers won't be effective, but the numbers suggest it could already be fixed. Since June 20, Rogers has had a 2.89 ERA with 105 strikeouts to 17 walks. The average exit velocity, average launch angle, and hard-hit% have fallen to around or below the numbers the pitcher had last season over the last few months.

After the way Rogers' Orioles career started, not many thought he would last long in Baltimore. He turned it around and became one of baseball's best pitchers, and now the Orioles need to make a decision: try to re-sign him or let him sign elsewhere. Before the Orioles do that, they need to make sure they can stabilize his changeup first.

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