We're now just a week away from Christmas and the free agent buzz has died down significantly since the rush of signings we got earlier in December. The Orioles still have a glaring weak spot at the top of the rotation, and there are only a handful of guys who reasonably fit that opening.
Corbin Burnes still makes the most sense, as he has plenty of familiarity with Baltimore's systems and is a great fit for this young clubhouse. Jeff Passan of ESPN has recently noted ($) that there are three teams considered as serious contenders to land Burnes, those being Baltimore, Toronto, and San Francisco.
Burnes will obviously be expensive. Passan writes that he's expected to top Max Fried's $218 million contract, and that he's very unlikely to sign before the holiday next week. At this point, it looks like the Burnes saga could continue into January. If that's the case, it could open up the possibility that other teams would be willing to get back into the mix for his services. There are a number of teams who could use Burnes at the top of their rotations. It just comes down to whether or not they want to pony up the cash to acquire him.
Will the Orioles add another starting pitcher prior to Opening Day?
While Burnes sits at the top of the starting pitching pool, there are a few other guys in the mid-tier range who would theoretically fit in Baltimore's rotation. Two guys who have been linked to the O's previously are former Mets' lefty Sean Manaea and former Red Sox' righty Nick Pivetta.
While either of Manaea or Pivetta would be fine additions in a vacuum, both were extended qualifying offers by their respective teams earlier this offseason. Passan notes in his latest column that the Orioles are uninterested forfeiting any draft compensation to add any free agents at present. That likely takes Manaea and Pivetta out of the conversation entirely.
Outside of those two, the biggest names left on the board include former Oriole Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Andrew Heaney, and Jeff Hoffman, who is trying to convert from the bullpen to the rotation. Patrick Sandoval is also out there but is recovering from Tommy John surgery and won't be available for the first half of the season. He's not a likely candidate to land in Baltimore.
So outside of a trade, the Orioles' options are looking thin. There are major question marks about Scherzer and Verlander, as both are in their 40's at this point. Buehler is an interesting name but he's coming off a significant injury and outside of a small run of success in the postseason, wasn't particularly impressive in his return last year. Passan also notes that Astros' ace Framber Valdez is almost certainly off the table in trade talks, so we'll shelve that theory for the time being.
Lastly, Anthony Santander's market seems to be cooling. As we get deeper into the offseason, it seems less likely that he'll get the ~5 year deal that many had predicted. Even coming off such a strong season, Santander might have to settle for a 3 or 4 year contract, which might have an opt-out if he's lucky. That won't be the ticket to get him back to Baltimore, but we'll see how desperate teams get as we get closer to Opening Day.