Mets' free agent lefty is the wrong choice for Orioles this winter

We're going to spend all winter talking about the Orioles' rotation, at least until Mike Elias finds someone to fill the void created by Corbin Burnes' departure. Several names have already been linked to the Orioles already, including former Braves' star Max Fried.

While Fried would be a good choice to lead the O's rotation, there are honestly just a few names that fit that mold. They could bring Burnes back, or go after Giants' lefty Blake Snell on a potentially short-term, high AAV deal. Or the O's could do what they did last year and try to nab someone off the trade market.

What they can't do is bank on a small sample of good, not great performance and project out a significant multi-year deal for an otherwise unproven starter. And with the recent rumors that the O's could target Mets' lefty Sean Manaea, that's exactly what they'd be doing.

Manaea has been a major leaguer since 2016, in which time he's thrown just under 1,200 innings. While he's shown the stuff to project as a mid-rotation type of guy in the past, 2024 was the first year he's pitched at the level worthy of the contract he's projected to earn.

Sean Manaea is not the pitcher the Orioles need this winter

MLB Trade Rumors thinks that Manaea will get a 3-year deal worth $60 million. The lefty pitched to a 3.47 ERA in 2024, which was easily his best mark in a full season to this point in his career. In 2023, his ERA was a paltry 4.44, and it was an even worse 4.96 back in 2022. You have to go back to 2021 to find the last time he was an effective starter, and even that was a 3.91 ERA in 179.1 innings with the Athletics.

Manaea's 3.83 FIP suggests regression in 2025, and his Statcast page is not encouraging. He's roughly league average in terms of chase rate and whiff rate, and his 8.5% walk rate is a good bit below league average. All that to say that there are plenty of reasons to think that Manaea will regress to the guy he's been throughout his career, rather than continue on this surprise trajectory that we saw for most of 2024.

Add in the fact that what the Orioles need is an ace, and what Manaea could provide is quite a bit less than that, and it's hard to argue that the O's should be looking to go after him. In the scenario where the Orioles are adding a Fried or a Snell at the top of the rotation, adding Manaea to round out the back end could potentially make sense. But relying on him to be an ace would be a significant mistake, and should be avoided at all costs.