Orioles rumors: Corbin Burnes' potential mega-deal, O's free agency reset

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and a very happy holidays to all who celebrate. Now that we're past the Christmas holiday, let's hit the reset button. We won't really be in the clear until this time next week, after the new year holiday passes. But for now, we have some updates on Corbin Burnes' path through free agency and a little light on how the Orioles might proceed through the rest of the winter.

According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, Burnes is looking to maximize his potential earnings this winter. This is off the heels of a conversation that started last week in regards to Burnes theoretically being willing to accept a short-term, high AAV type deal with a contender.

That path was always a bit of a long shot. Burnes is already 30 and any short-term deal will severely limit his ability to lock in those extra years down the road. He's reportedly been looking in the 7-8 year range, which is reasonable given his prior performance and his current age heading into this upcoming contract.

Despite his lagging strikeout rate, Burnes has remained one of the top starters in the league since his stellar performance in the shortened 2020 season. Yes, Burnes posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career in 2024, coming in at 23.1%. That puts him right at league-average, rather than among the league's best like he was back in 2020-2021.

That's alright though, as all of Burnes' other peripherals suggest that there's not much in the way of regression heading his way. He still has one of the best chase rates in the league, and he's in the 95th percentile when it comes to limiting hard contact. Those skills aren't going to disappear overnight, nor should we expect them to.

Corbin Burnes still makes a ton of sense as a target for the Orioles

So it makes sense that Burnes and his agent, Scott Boras, have been looking for something like an 8-year, $245 million contract this winter. Who's in line to sign him? Well as of now, it looks like the Orioles are still interested, as are the Giants and the Blue Jays. The Cubs make a lot of sense as a landing spot, but we've already seen them cut salary this winter, so it's not clear whether they'll want to pony up for him. The Red Sox make sense to a lesser extent, as do the Tigers, Astros, Braves, and Mets.

Someone will pay top dollar for him. It's just a matter of how long we have to wait before we get the news. It wouldn't be surprising to see this lag into January.

Outside of Burnes, the Orioles haven't been seriously connected to anyone of note. It's unlikely that they'll reunite with Anthony Santander now that Tyler O'Neill is on board. They've filled the backup catcher spot, acquiring both Gary Sanchez and Rene Pinto earlier this offseason. The infield is full, assuming they don't have plans to trade Ryan Mountcastle or Heston Kjerstad, and the outfield looks set as well.

The obvious need is still an upgrade to the pitching staff. There's still a need at the top of the rotation, and it wouldn't be a bad idea to bring in another high-powered bullpen arm to help alleviate some of the pressure that's going to be placed on Felix Bautista.

It seems evident that Mike Elias isn't done. He's likely going to make at least one more addition this winter, and potentially more than that. Whether that means they shell out for Burnes, or go bargain shopping to fill out the back end of the pitching staff remains to be seen. We might have to wait until January to see the O's make another move but Elias surely has other moves to make before this team heads south for spring training.