Now that the 2024 MLB season is officially over, we're about to get into the thick of hot stove season. The Orioles have already made their first trade of the offseason, re-acquiring outfielder Daz Cameron from the Athletics on Wednesday afternoon.
The O's are likely to be involved in the trade market throughout the winter and MLB Trade Rumors suggests that they may be actively looking to shop center fielder Cedric Mullins. There are a number of reasons why moving Mullins makes sense in theory.
For one, he's due a raise in arbitration and it's unclear whether the O's are willing to dish out the roughly $9 million he's projected to get. For another, 2025 is Mullins' final year of artibration, as he's set to reach free agency at the end of next year. Given his recent performance, it's unlikely that he'll earn a qualifying offer, so it might make sense to move him now and recoup as much value as possible.
While the arguments for trading him are fair, and the fact is that the O's were already reportedly shopping him at the 2024 deadline, Mullins was outstanding in the second half and the Orioles could use his bat in the lineup.
Just because the Orioles can trade Cedric Mullins doesn't mean they should
In the event that the Orioles wind up trading Mullins, Rookie of the Year finalist Colton Cowser would likely take over full time duties in center. And with Enrique Bradfield Jr. making a name for himself in the minors, the O's do have options on the farm to help fill in the void a Mullins deal would create.
However, Mullins is still a valuable piece for the Orioles. Yes, he's struggled at the plate the last two years. Combined, he's slashed .233/.305/.410 between 2023-2024 and he hasn't come close to matching the career-high 30 home runs he hit in 2021. Still, Mullins is a good defender, has good plate discipline, and swiped 32 bags this year.
Maybe the biggest thing is that with Mullins set to earn a one-year, slightly below market-rate deal, you've got to consider how much the Orioles would actually get for him in a trade. He's a 2-3 win player making a bit less than he'd get on the free market. However, there's not a ton of surplus value there.
The O's need pitching, but they need an ace more than they need depth. Unfortunately, Mullins isn't going to be the headliner in a deal to acquire a top pitcher. And moving him now leaves the O's a bit thin in terms of outfield depth, assuming that they don't bring Anthony Santander back this winter.
If Santander returns, or if they sign another strong outfielder, the argument makes a bit more sense. But as it, it's tough to see the Orioles trading a veteran outfielder who's still a viable hitter in an attempt to make a marginal upgrade elsewhere on the roster.