Orioles may avoid potential outfield target thanks to unexpected qualifying offer

The MLB offseason is officially underway and teams have submitted qualifying offers to eligible players. The Orioles sent out two such offers, to starter Corbin Burnes and outfielder Anthony Santander.

While neither Burnes nor Santander are expected to return to Baltimore in 2024, the O's will still need to find replacements to cover for the missing production. Santander in particular was an important part of the offense and it won't be easy to replace the 44 home runs he hit this year.

One potential replacement to fill the void in right field is outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, who spent this past year with the Dodgers. Hernandez was a buy-low candidate last offseason and he delivered for Los Angeles. The righty hit .272/.339/.501 with 33 homers and 99 RBI in 154 games.

The Dodgers went above and beyond to acquire him for the 2024 season. Last winter, Hernandez was getting offers in the $12-$15 million per year range. The Dodgers scooped him up on a 1-year, $23.5 million deal that allowed Hernandez to bet on himself. In this case, Hernandez made the right choice and he'll likely get paid handsomely because of it.

Teoscar Hernandez might be off the Orioles' target list thanks to his qualifying offer

MLB Trade Rumors has Hernandez projected to get a 3 year deal worth $60 million this winter. It's almost certain that he'll get a multi-year deal at this point. It's tough to imagine that he'd want to take the one-year qualifying offer, especially given that it'd be a pay cut.

While Hernandez may have been a potential target for Mike Elias and the Orioles coming into the winter, now that the righty has the qualifying offer attached he might be a guy the O's avoid. In order to acquire a player with a QO, the signing team has to give up a draft pick as part of the compensation.

Because the Orioles receive revenue sharing payments, and did not pay into the CBT penalty fund, if they were to sign a player who declined their qualifying offer they'd have to give up their third highest pick in the 2025 draft.

Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal love their draft picks. And with the way that a number of them have played out, it's tough to blame them. The strategy that the O's have deployed is working, and it's not clear that they'd be willing to give up a pick in order to sign Hernandez, despite how good Hernandez has been.

It's still possible that the O's buck the trend and go after Hernandez, but at this point it looks like they'll focus on other options. Whether that's the right strategy or not, we'll have to wait to find out.