Orioles hoping for pair of comp picks by extending 2 qualifying offers

On Monday afternoon, the Orioles finalized the first set of offseason decisions that needed to be made. They opted in to 3 of their club options, and let Eloy Jimenez and Danny Coulombe walk in free agency. In addition to those decisions, the O's also extended qualifying offers to the pair of Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander.

It was known in advance that the O's would elect to offer QO's to both Santander and Burnes. Both are expected to sign significant contracts in the offseason, well beyond what they'd earn by signing the QO. The QO is an average of the top-125 players across the league, and for 2025 the figure will be $21.05 million.

According to MLB Trade Rumors' projections, Burnes could expect to receive a deal worth 7 years and $200 million, while Santander is pegged for a 4 year deal worth $80 million. There's no chance that either takes a one year deal to remain in Baltimore, no matter how much the pair of them like it here.

Orioles angling for pair of competitive balance round picks by extending qualifying offers

One intriguing aspect of the qualifying offer is that if players who receive a QO sign with another team, that signing team must give up a draft pick to acquire the player. The way it works is a bit convoluted, as there are rules about whether the teams are revenue sharing recipients or payors, or if the team paid into the CBT. Mike Axisa of CBS Sports has a great explainer here if you want to dig into it.

In the Orioles case, because they received revenue sharing, if either Burnes or Santander, or both, wind up signing for more than $50 million, which is expected, the O's will receive a compensation pick(s) slated for after the first round of the 2025 MLB draft. In the strange scenario where either player were to sign for less than $50 million, the O's would receive a pick just before the third round.

Because both Santander and Burnes are expected to surpass $50 million this winter, and neither is really expected to return to Baltimore, it's likely that the Orioles will capture two highly valuable draft picks in return. If that were to happen, it'd be like the O's getting three first-round picks next year. That'd be huge, especially if the team can replace the pair's level of production elsewhere in free agency.

While it was expected that the two former O's would both receive a QO, it's still a smart move by the front office. Yes, they'll have to find a way to cover the holes created by Burnes and Santander leaving. But if they can add two more valuable prospects to their farm system next summer, that's a decent consolation prize.